Kansas City Chiefs

KC — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Chiefs went 6-11, 3rd in the AFC West — first missed postseason of the Mahomes era (PFR/SI, Dec 2025). Mahomes tore his ACL + LCL Week 15 (2025-12-14 vs LAC, the elimination loss); backups (Minshew/Oladokun/Buechele) finished the year. KC then retooled: OC Matt Nagy left (contract expired), Eric Bieniemy returned as OC, CB1 Trent McDuffie was traded to the Rams for a pick haul, and Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III signed to fix a 25th-ranked run game (NFL.com/ESPN, March 2026).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Andy Reid (HC) — confirmed: "I still enjoy calling plays… we do this jointly" — Reid retains primary play-calling with Bieniemy relaying calls and contributing situationally (A to Z Sports, 2026-01-26). Nagy handled some play-calling duties late in 2025 (chiefs.com); that arrangement ended with his departure.
• Tenure with team: 14th season as KC HC (2013–) · Prior relationship with QB1: Mahomes' only NFL head coach/caller (since 2017). New OC Bieniemy (11th year in KC, 6th as OC; prior KC OC stint 2018–22) is not the play-caller — no §9 protocol required, but his run-game influence is a real input.

Last 3 play-calling stops (all KC — Reid has called KC's plays throughout; 2024/2023 team-tendency tables are not in data/ and were not independently sourced):

Read: Reid is a pass-tilt caller (+4.0 PROE even in a lost season), mid pace, low play-action, west-coast timing with schemed short-area YAC touches — his No. 1 read historically funnels to the slot/TE, and the 2025 target tree (Kelce 19.7%, Rice ~25% per-game share when active) fits that. For 2026 expect a modest re-balance off the script-inflated 66.9% pass rate: Mahomes returns (positive scripts), $28.7M guaranteed to Kenneth Walker, and Bieniemy — whose run-game expertise Reid explicitly leaned on in his first OC stint — is back in the room. Rice's designed-touch/YAC role is a claim on Reid and is stable; nothing here voids.

QB situation

• QB1: Patrick Mahomes — franchise contract (restructured Feb 2026 for cap — Yahoo/arrowheadaddict); benching risk: none. Games-risk: medium — ACL+LCL torn 2025-12-14, surgery Dec 2025 (Dr. Cooper, Dallas); rehab "going great," goal "Week 1 with no restrictions" (NFL.com, June 2026); at June 9 minicamp did 7-on-7 but no team drills, "not running and cutting yet" (ESPN/sportDA, June 2026). ESPN's Graziano: Week 1 return "feels like a strong possibility."
• Backup: Justin Fields — trade from NYJ 2026-03-16 for a 2027 6th; Jets pay $7M of his $10M 2026 salary (ESPN/NFL.com, March 2026) — tier B: experienced starter but a low-volume, scramble-heavy passer; offense compresses and shifts run-heavy (−pass rate, −aDOT on timing routes, +QB runs/light boxes). QB3: R7 rookie Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) / Chris Oladokun.
• Contingency line: If Mahomes misses time: Fields, tier B — expect a ~5–8 pt pass-rate cut and lower dropback volume; Rice's short-area volume and Kelce's option routes lose the most (rhythm/anticipation throws), Worthy holds relative value on deep shots and schemed touches, Walker and the run game gain meaningfully. Position evals must widen ranges downward while Mahomes' Week-1 status is unresolved (methodology §3).

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (SI, 2026-04-29; kckingdom/Arrowhead Pride, 2026): LT Josh Simmons (2025 R1 — "Pro Bowl upside" flashes, injury flag: missed time as rookie), LG Kingsley Suamataia, C Creed Humphrey (98% PBWR, No. 1 IOL — ESPN 2025), RG Trey Smith, RT Jaylon Moore (replaces Jawaan Taylor, released 2026-03-04 at a $27.3M cap hit — A to Z Sports tracker).
• Interior vs edge: interior is elite (Humphrey/Smith anchor a No. 2 PBWR unit) — the deep game and Mahomes' step-up efficiency are protected, the best possible OL shape for a QB returning from ACL. Edge is the residual question: Simmons' health and Moore as a first-year full-time RT — if either leaks, expect chips/quick game (aDOT compression) rather than a collapse. Run-blocking (25th RBWR) is the unit's weakness; Walker's efficiency projection should not assume plus lanes.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: zone-lean with gap/counter mix out of spread sets (scheme-rate split UNVERIFIED); Bieniemy's return adds run-game emphasis (ESPN, Jan 2026). RB fits: Walker's contact balance and burst fit inside-zone/one-cut; his 2025 postseason (65-313-4, led NFL — NFL.com, Feb 2026) came in a zone scheme in SEA. Behind a 25th-ranked RBWR unit, he creates his own yards or they don't come.
• Pass-game family: West coast (Reid tree) with spread/RPO elements — short timing, high completion, schemed YAC; low PA (14.9% charted, 2025). Implications: slot volume is fed (Rice), RB targets healthy (16.2% in 2025 even without Mahomes for stretch), TE routes central (Kelce), aDOT mid-to-low with manufactured deep shots for Worthy/Thornton.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Marquise Brown — 74 tgt / 0 car (→ PHI, 1-yr — A to Z tracker, March 2026)
• WR JuJu Smith-Schuster — 45 tgt (→ NYG — NFL.com departures, March 2026)
• RB Kareem Hunt — 25 tgt / 163 car, team-high 611 yds & 8 rush TD (unsigned FA as of 2026-07 — SI)
• RB Isiah Pacheco — 26 tgt / 118 car (→ DET — NFL.com, 2026-03)
• QB Gardner Minshew (→ ARI, 1-yr up to $8.25M); RB depth CEH (2 tgt/7 car), Elijah Mitchell (1 tgt), Dameon Pierce (4 car) — off roster per tracker/53-man coverage

Vacated targets: ~173 · Vacated carries: ~292 — both over the §6 bands, but with meaningful capital added at RB (Walker) and the target vacancy mostly re-absorbed internally: Rice back for a full season (8 gm in 2025), Worthy healthy (labrum), Thornton re-signed. This is not an open feeding opportunity for a new arrival; it consolidates the incumbents.

Arrivals (claim): RB Kenneth Walker III — 3 yr, up to $45M, $28.7M fully guaranteed (NFL.com, March 2026) = presumptive lead-back claim; QB Justin Fields (trade, 2027 6th); RB Emari Demercado (1-yr, from ARI); RB Emmett Johnson (R5 #161); WR Cyrus Allen (R5 #176); QB Garrett Nussmeier (R7). Re-signed: TE Travis Kelce (1-yr $12M up to $15M, restructured as 3-yr/$57M cap vehicle — NFL.com/CBS, March 2026), WR Tyquan Thornton (after career year), WR Nikko Remigio (ERFA).

Projected pecking order (SI projected starters 2026-04-29 + 2025 usage + Reid tendencies):

RB committee split: Walker is the clear lead — early downs + goal line (contract claim; Hunt's 163 carries and Pacheco's 118 both vacated). Brashard Smith holds the passing-down/satellite role he played as a rookie (35 tgt). Demercado is veteran insurance; R5 Emmett Johnson is camp depth. Not contested at the top — the only tripwire is a Hunt reunion (still unsigned).

TE1/TE2: Kelce TE1 (14th season; efficiency rebounded per-snap in 2025 even as volume fell — SI, April 2026); Noah Gray TE2 (real snaps in 12 personnel, 25.7% rate in 2025); Jared Wiley TE3.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5 (DraftKings, over +115 / under −140, as-of 2026-07-01 — CBS Sports; juice has migrated toward the under since February) → script lean: positive (≥9.5), with the market's Mahomes-knee skepticism priced into the juice, not the number
• Projected plays/game: ~63.5 · Projected pass rate: ~60% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~34 · rush attempts/game: ~27 (incl. ~2 QB scrambles)
• Inputs: KC 2025 = 64.5 plays/gm, 66.9% pass (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07 — pass rate script-inflated by a 6-11 season and 43 dropbacks/gm); Reid PROE +4.0 (nfelo 2025); win total 10.5 = positive-script trim; Walker investment + Bieniemy run-game influence trim further; Mahomes' return raises efficiency, not necessarily volume. 63.5 × 0.60 ≈ 38 dropbacks − ~2 sacks − ~2 scrambles ≈ 34 att; 63.5 × 0.40 ≈ 25.5 designed rushes + scrambles ≈ 27. If Fields starts any stretch, shift ~4–5 attempts from pass to rush.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Steve Spagnuolo (DC) — confirmed: returning for his 8th season as KC DC (Yahoo/PFF HC-candidate coverage, 2026 offseason); no reporting suggests anyone else calls the defense
• Tenure with team: 8th season (2019–) · New DC: no — 2025 scheme stats remain valid (continuity green flag on scheme; personnel is another story, below)
• Front/scheme family: 4-down, blitz-heavy, man-leaning pressure scheme (Spagnuolo signature sim-pressures/DB blitzes; rates below)

Context: 19.29 points allowed/gm, EPA/play allowed −0.0065, but only 14 takeaways (nflverse def_summary 2025) — the pressure didn't convert to turnovers; run-stop win rate 28%, 30th (ESPN, Jan 2026).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• OUT — CB1 Trent McDuffie, traded to LAR (for No. 29 + 2026 R5 + R6 + 2027 R3; LAR then extended him 4-yr/$124M, $100M gtd — ESPN/NFL.com, March 2026). The defining move: KC's coverage anchor is gone.
• OUT — edge Mike Danna (cut, cap) and edge Charles Omenihu → WAS (1-yr $4M — tracker, March 2026); LB Leo Chenal → WAS (3-yr $24.75M); S Bryan Cook → CIN; CB Jaylen Watson → LAR; CB Joshua Williams → TEN; DT Nnadi and Tillery → IND.
• IN — R1 #6 CB Mansoor Delane (LSU; traded 9, 74, 148 to CLE to move up — PFR/ESPN draft, April 2026), projected Day-1 CB1; R1 #29 DT Peter Woods (Clemson, via the McDuffie pick); R2 #40 edge R Mason Thomas (Oklahoma); R4 #109 S Jadon Canady; CB Kader Kohou (from MIA, earmarked for the slot — SI, 2026-04-29); DT Khyiris Tonga (3-yr $21M); S Alohi Gilman (3-yr). Chris Jones restructured and stays (No. 1 DT pass-rush win rate, 20% — ESPN 2025); George Karlaftis and Nick Bolton (154 tackles) return; Drue Tranquill took a pay cut to stay.
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — McDuffie was not a habitual shadow under Spagnuolo, and the 2026 CB1 is a rookie (Delane) flanked by Fulton outside and Kohou in the slot (SI, April 2026). UNVERIFIED until camp/season charting.

Read: A blitz-heavy (33.6%), man-leaning (37%) Spagnuolo pressure scheme with an elite interior rush (Jones) that kept points down (19.3/gm) but generated few takeaways (14) in 2025 — and it now fields a rebuilt perimeter: rookie CB1, new slot corner, new safety, and churned edge depth (Danna/Omenihu out, R2 rookie in). Scheme continuity keeps the pressure floor, but expect early-season coverage variance and boom/bust DST weeks; opposing man-beaters (and slot WRs vs Kohou) are the soft spot to check in /weekly-edge.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: incumbent play-caller (Reid, 14th yr) + same QB1 + 4/5 OL returning would read high, but the one major open item is real: Mahomes' ACL recovery (7-on-7 only in June, Week 1 unresolved, tier-B backup), functionally an unresolved top-of-depth-chart question. Secondary risks (Rice's pending NFL discipline + knee, new OC without play-calling change) reinforce medium rather than dragging to low. Defensive turnover is carried in the §8 section, not this rating (dc_new: false).
• Watch items: (1) Mahomes running/cutting + team-drill clearance in camp — if he's ruled out for early weeks, re-run QB/WR/TE evals with the Fields contingency; (2) NFL personal-conduct ruling on Rice (probation violation, 30 days served May 19–June 16 — NFL.com) — any suspension voids the pecking order top slot; (3) Rice knee (June cleanup, ~2-month window, camp-ready per Reid — NFL.com June 2026); (4) Worthy shoulder progression; (5) Kareem Hunt reunion (unsigned) — would dent Walker's goal-line share; (6) RT Jaylon Moore/Simmons health; (7) win-total moves ≥1.5.