Woody Marks

Woody Marks — RB, HOU (2026)

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 137.8 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07; RB42, ~round 12 of 12-team). Marks is a proven-usage year-2 back (2025 R4 #116, but the Texans paid a 2026 3rd to get him — functional day-2 capital) being priced as a pure satellite after Houston traded for David Montgomery. The market is right about the 2026 role (Montgomery featured + goal line, Marks passing downs + change-of-pace — beat-confirmed) but wrong about two things: (1) Marks' PPR-scored standalone role alone roughly pays the pick, so the contingency comes nearly free; and (2) the contingency is unusually good — Montgomery enters his age-29 season with ~1,708 career regular-season touches, and Marks already showed 54–87% snap shares and ~70% dropback participation as the interim lead in weeks 10–14 of 2025, with clean succession (RB3 is Jawhar Jordan). Why the market is wrong: it prices Marks on the "complimentary" label and his mediocre rookie rushing efficiency; the system prices him on a script-proof target role plus a top-15-weeks contingent path on a 9.5-win-total, 404-point offense.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, 17-game season, PPR (assumed):

Inputs: team ~65 plays/g, ~27 rush att/g, ~33.5 pass att/g (team profile, 2026-07-07); RB carries ~409 after QB runs; median Marks carry share ~33% of RB carries; RB target share 13.9% in Caley's 2025 offense → ~78 RB targets, Marks ~60% of them. TDs anchored to xTD, not 2025 actuals: Montgomery owns the goal line (Marks projected inside-10 share drops from 42% to ~15%), team inside-10 rush conversion should improve off a 5-TD 2025 base with the OL spend; rec TDs ~1.5–2 off designed screen usage. Efficiency bumped from 3.59 rookie YPC to ~4.0 on the upgraded interior OL (Teller/Ingram/Smith) and a lighter listed weight — modest, defensible, and not load-bearing for the verdict.

• Games-played risk: medium — RB baseline; 16/17 games as a rookie (Week 16 ankle sprain — Yahoo/RotoWire, 12/2025); kickoff-return duty (SI/Aaron Wilson, 2026-07-06) adds marginal exposure.
• Median = ~8.2 PPG ≈ RB38–42 — i.e., the standalone role alone approximately matches his RB42 price before any contingency value.
• Comps: Austin Ekeler 2018 (LAC behind Gordon — ceiling flavor), Jaylen Warren 2023 (PIT — passing-down back who forced a near-split), Zach Charbonnet 2024 (SEA — handcuff-plus who cashed injury weeks), Tony Pollard 2021 (DAL — efficient RB2, capped by incumbent), Tyjae Spears 2024 (TEN — floor flavor).
• External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent) — no sanity-check source; noted.

Usage profile (2025 rookie season, REG, 16 games)

Efficiency (§5, separated from the line): RYOE +0.16/att (good band) on a 27.6% 8+-box diet — NGS ngs_rushing.csv; success rate 36.2% (concern) vs team RB baseline 36.8% — the drag is the line's (HOU 22nd in rush ypg, run-block mid-concern proxy — team profile); YAC/att 2.6 and 27 MTF rushing (~0.138/carry) — pff.com via search snippet 2026-07-07 — both concern-band; breakaway 7 runs of 15+ (3.6%). Read: the rushing talent signal is ordinary — slightly positive blocking-adjusted, below-average contact balance. The receiving profile is the asset: 24-208-3 on 36 targets as a rookie (led the RB room), 3 receiving TDs on designed usage, and 261 college receptions in 57 games (Mississippi State/USC — battleredblog/Wikipedia via search 2026-07-07), an elite college-receiving prior per prospect-pedigree.md (≥40 career receptions predicts the three-down role; he has 6.5×). College target share 12.4% = 90th percentile (PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07).

Game-script read (explicit): He does not leave the field by score state — 2025 carries split 25 trailing-7+/123 neutral/48 leading-7+, targets 8/19/9 (nflverse pbp). HOU win total 9.5 (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) → positive scripts, which feed Montgomery's clock-killing carries more than Marks; but the passing-down role is script-proof, so Marks' projection moves little with team quality — exactly the profile rb.md §4 says to price up.

Age/workload: Born 2000-12-29 — age-25 season turning 26 in December (Sleeper, 2026-07-07); old for year 2, and 57 college games + 220 rookie REG touches (+37 playoff touches) put real miles on him early — mild long-horizon flag, irrelevant for 2026. Draft capital: R4 #116, but HOU sent Miami a 2026 3rd (#90) to move up (NBC Sports PFT, 4/2025) — the team's revealed price was day-2-adjacent.

Context (from data/team-profiles/HOU.md, built 2026-07-07)

• Coaching: Nick Caley returns as play-caller (yr 2); near-neutral PROE (−1.0%), high play volume (67.3/g in 2025), RB target share 13.9% — below neutral, the one structural cap on Marks' receiving ceiling. Caley has floated split-back sets with both RBs on the field (roundtable.io/beat reporting, 6–7/2026).
• Backfield: David Montgomery arrived via trade (Scruggs + 2026 4th + 2027 7th) with a 2-yr/$16.5M, ~$10M gtd deal — the team told you the plan: featured/goal-line back. RB coach Danny Barrett: "He's a three-down back. He can do it all" (SI, 2026-07-04). Marks' 2026 assignment per Aaron Wilson: "third-down pass-catching duties and carries along with a new role on kickoff returns" (SI, 2026-07-06); role described as "complimentary"; he cut weight by design for pass-catching duty (roundtable.io, 6/2026). RB3: Jawhar Jordan — no other capital added. Chubb/Ogunbowale/Pierce/Mixon all gone: 143 vacated carries and 33 vacated RB targets consolidated into this two-man room.
• Committee 2×2: moderate standalone (locked passing-down role) + high contingent (clean succession to a proven interim-bellcow role). Handcuff three-factor test: aged starter (29, ~1,708 REG touches — PFR/Wikipedia via search 2026-07-07; 1,477 carries + 231 rec), good offense (404 points in 2025, 9.5 win total), clean succession (yes). All three pass.
• OL/scheme: interior upgraded (Teller, Ingram, Smith; R1 C Rutledge likely) off a bad 2025 run-blocking unit — lifts the whole backfield's floor; zone-lean scheme with gap mix, Marks is the one-cut/satellite fit — no mismatch flag.
• QB: Stroud locked in; contingency (Mills) explicitly preserves the RB checkdown/underneath role per the team profile — Marks' floor survives a QB injury.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

• Camp/preseason usage shows Montgomery taking third-down/two-minute reps with the first team — the standalone thesis breaks → likely FADE.
• Houston adds any RB (capital or veteran signing) before Week 1 — succession clarity is a third of the value.
• Montgomery injury or extended absence news — re-run immediately; verdict likely upgrades (MUST-HAVE territory at this price).
• ADP rises past ~110 (RB36) — the free-contingency math no longer works → HOLD.
• League scoring confirmed as half-PPR or worse — receiving-role premium compresses → re-run toward HOLD.