Don't Look at My Team

Sam LaPorta — TE, DET — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 71.9 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — TE7, late round 6). The market is pricing LaPorta on his injury-shortened 106.9-point 2025 and on murky back-surgery headlines; it is not pricing that Detroit's new play-caller, Drew Petzing, just spent three years making his tight end (Trey McBride) the NFL's overall target leader — 28.1% TS in 2024, 27.4% in 2025 (nflverse receiving.csv, pulled 2026-07-07) — and that LaPorta posted career-best per-route efficiency (2.15 YPRR, 0.216 TPRR on 227 routes; 18.6% active-game target share; 81.6% catch rate) before the Week 10 disc herniation. Why the market is wrong: at TE7, behind two unproven second-year TEs and level with Tucker Kraft, LaPorta carries the clearest top-3 TE path outside the pay-up tier — proven 13.8 PPG as a rookie, age 25 (peak window), an elite offense (10.5 win total), and a scheme that structurally feeds the position — while the back risk that justifies the discount is trending resolved (running/sprinting at minicamp, "trending the right way" toward camp availability per Campbell, 2026-06-16). He is priced in the §7 dead zone but is one of the few round-5–8 TEs who passes the dead-zone screen: a genuine elite-usage path plus a 2024 top-5 end-zone role, not just a "fine" profile.

Bull case

The scheme just produced the NFL's overall target leader at this position, twice-running as the No. 1 read. Petzing's TE posted 28.1% and 27.4% target shares in consecutive seasons; LaPorta enters that role at 25, in a far better offense than Arizona's, and his own rookie year (120 targets, 86-889-10, 13.8 PPG) proves he can carry hub volume.
Pre-injury 2025 was a quiet career year: 2.15 YPRR / 0.216 TPRR on 227 routes (both at or above the elite bars), 81.6% catch rate, 18.6% TS, 92.6% on-field on dropbacks, 11.9 PPG (#6 TE) — in an offense whose play-caller was de-emphasizing him. Efficiency rose two straight seasons, satisfying the two-season bar for believing an efficiency change. With RP at 77%, routes are the only missing piece — the exact §10 green flag (TPRR ≥0.20 with RP <80%) — and the new play-caller is the route-expansion mechanism.
TD under-pricing: 2024 he was top-5 among TEs in end-zone targets (9); 2025's 3 TDs came on one end-zone target in nine games. The market sees a two-year TD fade (7, then 3); the usage says a healthy LaPorta in a 10.5-win offense with a TE-first caller regresses TDs *up* toward 6–8.

Bear case

He had back surgery eight months ago and hasn't taken a padded rep since — herniated disc (vs WAS, 2025-11-09), season-ending, still listed Questionable (Sleeper, 2026-07-07); at minicamp he did walkthroughs plus side sprint work only, and Campbell would commit only to "trending the right way." Disc recurrence would torch the season, and even the good branch may include an eased-in September behind Wright/Conklin.
The target ceiling is structurally capped: St. Brown (31% TS, same MOF real estate), Gibbs (~20% RB share under Petzing's own AZ pattern), and Williams are mouths McBride never competed with. LaPorta's active-game TS has never exceeded 18.6%; the median outcome is ~12.4 PPG — only +0.8 to +1.3 PPG over a streamer, which by itself fails the round-6 opportunity-cost test (te.md §7 dead-zone rule). You are paying for the right tail.
The scheme thesis is unconfirmed twice over: Petzing as caller is *presumed* (Campbell could keep plays as he did from Week 10 of 2025), and year-1 install drag plus a rebuilt OL (31st PBWR unit, three new-look spots) could suppress the whole passing game early. 2025's TE deprioritization (13.3% RZ share, 1 EZ target) happened under this same head coach's play-calling.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, 17-game team basis: ~63.5 plays/gm × ~56% pass ≈ 35.5 dropbacks / ~33 att per game (DET team profile, 2026-07-07).

Scenario	Games	TS	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD	PPR pts
Floor (p20)	12	~17%	64	47	540	4	~125
Median (p50)	16	~18%	96	73	890	6	~198
Ceiling (p80)	17	~22%	122	93	1,065	8	~250

Floor = back lingers into camp/season or recurs mid-year: reduced games plus eased-in early-season routes while Wright/Conklin carry the heavy sets.
Median = healthy-ish 16 games; RP ~78% × 35.5 dropbacks × TPRR ~0.21 ≈ 96 targets — TS between his 2025 pre-injury 18.6% and a modest scheme bump. ~12.4 PPG.
Ceiling = the McBride-lite outcome: full season as Petzing's first/second read in a top-5 offense, end-zone role restored to its 2024 top-5 level. ~14.6 PPG. (McBride's actual 2025 — 18.6 PPG, 315.9 PPR — is the p95 tail, not the p80; Petzing never had a St. Brown or Gibbs competing with his TE.)
TD anchor: xTD-based, not 2023's 10 or 2025's 3. His 2024 end-zone usage (9 EZ targets, top-5 among TEs — nflverse pbp, pulled 2026-07-07) supports 6–8 TDs at full health in a 10.5-win offense; his 2025 EZ usage (1 in 9 games) was a Morton/Campbell-era artifact now void with the play-caller change.
Games risk: medium — herniated-disc surgery (Nov 2025) with an on-track rehab (sprinting at minicamp, June 2026); age 25 favors full recovery, but he has not taken contact yet as of 2026-07-07 (Sleeper lists him Questionable). The floor scenario carries the recurrence branch; tripwire #1 is the update contract.

Comps (role/profile: high-participation, low-aDOT, MOF target-hub TE, age ~25, top offense — historical seasons, pre-2026 record): T.J. Hockenson 2022 (~19–20% TS, 13.5 PPG), David Njoku 2023 (81-882-6, 13.6 PPG), Evan Engram 2023 (114-963-4 volume shape, 14.0 PPG), LaPorta's own 2023 (120 tgt, 86-889-10, 13.8 PPG), George Kittle 2021 (injury-shortened 14 gm, 71-910-6). External projections: none in data/projections/ (dir absent) — no cross-check available.

Usage profile (te.md §2 table)

RP gate: passes — no part-time concern; he is a ~90%+ pass-snap player when active, and true route participation sits at the top of the Good band.

Metric	2024 (16 gm)	2025 (9 gm, pre-injury)	Band	Read
Route participation (routes / team dropbacks, active games)	~66% provider RP (PlayerProfiler); est. ~430 routes / 550 dropbacks ≈ 78% on att+sacks basis	~77% (227 routes / 294 att+sacks)	Good (high end)	Routes: RotoWire, fetched 2026-07-07; dropbacks: weekly.csv. On-field for 88.7% (2024) / 92.6% (2025) of charted dropbacks in active weeks (participation.csv) — snaps are never in question; the on-field-vs-routes gap is chip/block work. Routes are the one lever Petzing can pull.
TPRR (true: targets/routes)	~0.19 (est., 83 tgt / ~430 routes)	0.216 (49/227)	Good→Elite (at the 0.22 elite bar)	Earning rate jumped in 2025 — the leading indicator. Two-season trend is up.
YPRR	~1.7 (est.)	2.15 (489/227); 2.00 per PlayerProfiler	Elite	≥2.0 = difference-maker territory (te.md §2). Career high, corroborated by two sources.
Target share (active games)	16.9% (83/491)	18.6% (49/263)	Good	Computed from weekly.csv. Weekly highs of 22–26% five times in nine 2025 games.
RZ target share (active weeks)	20.4% (20/98) — 20 RZ tgt, 5th at TE	13.3% (6/45)	Good→Concern	nflverse pbp (pulled 2026-07-07); RotoWire corroborates the 2024 count (fetched 2026-07-07). 2025 dip tracks the Campbell-era TE deprioritization, void with the OC change.
End-zone targets	9 — top-5 TE (t-4th)	1	Elite (2024)	nflverse pbp. The 2024 EZ role is the xTD anchor; 2025's 3 TDs on 1 EZ target is TD under-usage, not decline.
Detached rate (slot/wide)	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	No alignment export in `data/raw/`; not obtained from free web. His 5.7 aDOT / 81.6% catch rate / +0.95 YAC over expected (NGS 2025) profile is short-MOF, not boundary jump-ball. College profile split ~evenly inline/detached (RotoWire bio).
Pass-block snap rate	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	—	No PFF/FP blocking export. Indirect check: routes = ~79% of on-field pass snaps in 2025 — nontrivial chip/block work, consistent with a Y who still releases.
xFP	~TE6–10 band (crude est.)	~10–11 xPPG (crude est.)	TE4–10	No provider xFP on hand (UNVERIFIED); estimate from 5.4 tgt/gm at 5.7 aDOT + 0.67 RZ tgt/gm. Actual 11.9 PPG (#6 TE — PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07) ran slightly hot on catch rate.

Coverage splits (nflverse participation charting joined to pbp, pulled 2026-07-07): 2025 — TPRR-proxy 0.212 and 2.21 yds/snap vs zone (38 tgt) vs 0.128 / 1.19 vs man (10 tgt, small sample); 2024 — 0.176 / 1.46 vs man (33 tgt), 0.153 / 1.45 vs zone. Read: a zone/MOF feaster with an adequate-not-elite man profile (2024 man numbers respectable). Stable floor profile per te.md §4; the elite ceiling rides on scheme feeding, which is exactly what Petzing provides. 2025 pass snaps by personnel: 70% from 11, 26% from 12, 4% from 13 — he keeps running routes when Detroit goes heavy.

Sample-size note: 2025 is 9 games / 227 routes — above the ~200-route trust bar, barely; the 2024–25 two-season view (efficiency rising, usage stable-to-up) is what the projection leans on.

Archetype (§8): Receiving Y with big-slot flashes — inline-capable but a low-aDOT target hub, TE1-capable in the right scheme, and the incoming scheme is the right scheme. §9 screens: year 4, age 25 (DOB 2001-01-12 — Sleeper, 2026-07-07), peak window opening; day-2 capital (2023 R2, pick 2.03 — PlayerProfiler); elite athletic priors (4.59 forty/91st pct, 108.4 Speed Score/85th, 90th-pct agility — PlayerProfiler, fetched 2026-07-07), which clears the §9 man-mismatch screen; rookie-fade rule N/A; no decline markers.

Context (data/team-profiles/DET.md, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Drew Petzing (OC, hired 2026-01-26; presumed caller — Campbell relinquishing per ESPN/Fowler reporting, Jan 2026). His only play-calling stop (ARI 2023–25) was a 12/13-personnel-heavy, run-lean scheme whose No. 1 read was the TE: McBride's TS was 28.1% (147 tgt) in 2024 and 27.4% (169 tgt, NFL target leader) in 2025 — nflverse receiving.csv. te.md §10 green flag verbatim: "new OC with top-5 TE target share history." The team profile's own read: the 12-personnel tilt "makes LaPorta (if healthy) the biggest scheme winner."
QB: Jared Goff (locked through 2028) — accurate MOF thrower, exactly the QB archetype that sustains TE volume. Contingency (Bridgewater, tier B) compresses the offense but keeps short-game targets — LaPorta holds in that branch.
Offense quality: 10.5 win total (DK/BetMGM, early July 2026) — top-tier environment; no §5 offense cap applies.
O-line: rebuilt and risky (31st PBWR in 2025; new C, rookie R1 RT, Sewell flipped to LT). Double-edged for a TE: possible chip/protection tax early, but the team profile explicitly projects "RB/TE outlets gain" weeks 1–4 as deep shots get harder.
Target hierarchy: St. Brown (31.3% TS in 2025) is the untouchable alpha — and a slot alpha who lives in the same MOF space (te.md §6 tax); Gibbs claims ~20% RB target share under Petzing's AZ pattern; Williams is the field-stretcher. Profile slots LaPorta #4 by claim, contested with Williams, *health-contingent* — with the explicit note that in Petzing's heavy sets "Wright/Conklin get real snaps but LaPorta gets the targets." A 19–22% TS is realistic; McBride's 27–28% is not, because Petzing never had a St. Brown or Gibbs in Arizona.
TE room: Brock Wright TE2 (blocking Y — 27–38% pass-snap share the last two seasons, 22 tgt in 2025; participation.csv/receiving.csv), Tyler Conklin TE3 at $1.3M insurance money (10 tgt for LAC in 2025). No draft capital spent at TE in 2026 (detroitlions.com draft review, April 2026) — the room was insured, not challenged.
Change flags: stability LOW (new OC + OL overhaul) — 2025 DET tendencies are void; this eval re-projects from the Petzing role per te.md §3. Residual risk: Campbell took play-calling back in Week 10 of 2025 and could again.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

LaPorta opens camp on PUP / misses padded practices past ~Aug 10, or any back-setback report → verdict drops to HOLD/FADE; floor branch activates.
Campbell confirmed as keeping play-calling (preseason) → Petzing-TE thesis void; re-project from Campbell's Wk 10–18 2025 usage (which buried LaPorta's RZ role).
Wright or Conklin running with the 1s in camp/preseason, or LaPorta on a visible snap count in preseason game action.
Camp reports emphasize LaPorta inline/blocking rather than moved around (alignment-demotion signal per te.md §3), or a rising pass-block rate in preseason.
ADP rises inside ~pick 55 (round 5) — the discount that carries this TARGET is gone; re-run as HOLD.

Scarcity placement (te.md §7)

2025 streamer baseline: TE12 PPG = 10.6 (Juwan Johnson, computed from weekly.csv, min 8 games) + 0.5–1.0 streaming bump ≈ 11.1–11.6 PPG baseline. Note the 2025 landscape was flat: TE5–TE12 spanned only 12.4→10.6 PPG.
LaPorta median (12.4 PPG) = +0.8 to +1.3 PPG — mid-tier, not worth round 6 on its own; ceiling (14.6 PPG) = +3.0 to +3.5 PPG, approaching pay-up-tier value at a round-6 sticker, with a p95 tail (McBride-like feeding) beyond it.
Placement: priced in the dead zone (round 6, TE7) but passes the dead-zone screen — the §7 rule admits a round-5–8 TE only with an elite-usage path or a top-3 EZ role; LaPorta has both halves of the argument (Petzing/McBride scheme path + 2024 top-5 EZ role). In this no-premium league the punt posture is the default, so treat him as the *last elite-path TE before the punt tier*: draft him at 71.9 as a ceiling bet, not a safe floor — Fannin (66.4) and Kraft (71.8) are the same-cost alternatives (see their 2026 evals), and LaPorta owns the highest ceiling of the trio if the back clears.
Market case, stated fairly: TE7 is a rational price for a player coming off back surgery whose last two seasons averaged ~11.4 PPG, on a team with three other target claims — the discount from his 2024 round-3 cost *is* the injury and hierarchy risk. The disagreement here is that the market is paying nothing for the play-caller change that historically defines TE outcomes (§6: "some schemes structurally feature the TE") and is treating the rehab as a coin flip when June reporting is uniformly positive.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ & data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, participation.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07): stat-table numbers, on-field dropback shares, team dropbacks (att+sacks), TS, NGS aDOT/catch%/YAC, coverage splits, personnel splits, TE PPG baseline, McBride 2024–25 lines, Wright/Conklin lines.
nflverse pbp via nflreadpy (loaded 2026-07-07): RZ/end-zone target counts and TE EZ leaderboards, 2024–2025.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07): LaPorta 71.9 = TE7; full TE landscape (McBride 27.6, Bowers 35.1, Loveland 44.8, Warren 55.0, Fannin 66.4, Kraft 71.8).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 25 (DOB 2001-01-12), Iowa, year 4, 6'3"/245, injury status Questionable.
data/team-profiles/DET.md (built 2026-07-07): Petzing hire/tendencies, hierarchy, OL, win total 10.5, TE room, plays/pass-rate projection, stability LOW.
RotoWire player page (fetched 2026-07-07): 2025 routes run 227, snap share, 2024 20 RZ targets (5th at TE), 2023 line (120-86-889-10), 2026 outlook.
PlayerProfiler player page (fetched 2026-07-07): 2025 11.9 PPG (#6 TE), 2.00 YPRR (career high), draft capital 2.03 (2023), athletic testing (4.59 forty/91st, Speed Score 108.4/85th, agility 90th pct).
Detroit News (2026-01-05) / detroitlions.com / Bleacher Report / Pride of Detroit (Jan–June 2026): herniated disc vs WAS (2025-11-09), surgery, "hopes to be in pads by camp," full-clearance expectation before late-July camp.
Pride of Detroit / Yahoo minicamp reports (June 2026): walkthroughs + side sprint work at minicamp; Campbell "trending the right way," trending toward training-camp availability (2026-06-16).
A to Z Sports (June 2026): Petzing expected to use multiple TEs; Conklin projected TE2/TE3 in 12/13 looks; year-4 make-or-break framing.

UNVERIFIED (not obtainable from cached data or free web this run): detached (slot/wide) alignment rate, pass-block snap rate, MOF-vs-boundary target mix, provider xFP, 2024 exact route count (estimated from provider RP × team dropbacks).