MIA
@LV
@SF
KC
@MIN
CIN
@NYJ
NE
DET
@IND
@BUF
@DEN
CHI
@GB
LACJaylen Wright — RB, MIA (2026)
Verdict
HOLD (low confidence) at an undrafted price (no FFC PPR mock ADP; Sleeper search-rank ~174 overall, 2026-07-07). Deep-pool screen result: a *conditional* path, currently trending the wrong way — profile and price agree, so no actionable edge either direction. The bull skeleton is real: age 23, elite speed (4.38 at 208 lbs), a wide-zone scheme fit under Slowik, no 2026 RB draft capital added, and the demonstrated fact that when Achane went down in 2025 (weeks 14 and 18) it was Wright — not Ollie Gordon — who led the backfield in carries (24 and 13). But the June 2026 beat signal runs against him: Gordon holds a "slight edge" for the RB2 job after OTAs/minicamp, Wright "had his issues catching the ball" in open practices (Alain Poupart, SI.com via PhinPhanatic, June 2026), the regime that traded up for him is gone, and even the contingency splits with Gordon (goal line) on a 4.5-win-total offense. Fails every breakout screen (day-3 capital, <60% late-season snaps, competition ascending not departing). No "market is wrong" thesis exists at a price of zero — this is a watch-list name whose tripwires (below) are the entire eval: if he *wins* the clear RB2 job in camp, he becomes the free handcuff to a shoulder-surgery lead back and the verdict flips to TARGET.
Bull case
- He is one Achane shoulder aggravation from lead-committee carries he has already demonstrably inherited: the only two 2025 games Achane was limited/out, Wright out-carried Gordon 24–5 and 13–9 — and Achane is a 188-lb back coming off shoulder surgery with a career-high workload behind a bottom-10 line. No 2026 RB capital was added to the room.
- Age-23 traits in the right scheme: 4.38 speed at 208, 6.2 college YPC, and a new play-caller whose wide-zone system is the best possible fit for a one-cut burst runner; directionally positive MTF/YCO indicators on his small NFL samples say the talent isn't disproven, merely unused.
- The price is literally zero: undrafted in 12-team formats, so every bull outcome — winning the clear RB2 job in camp, a Gordon injury, an Achane absence — is pure free option value; the wk14-2025 tape (24-107-1) is proof of what one such week pays.
Bear case
- He's losing the only battle that matters, to the cheaper claim: Gordon took the minicamp edge for RB2, Wright "had his issues catching the ball" in front of beat writers (SI, June 2026), and the regime that spent a 3rd to trade up for him is gone — he now needs a strong camp just to secure a roster spot on a team likely keeping four backs.
- The profile has no PPR floor and no TD access: 15 targets in two seasons, 7.7% pass-play participation (Achane at 73.8%), ~30 college receptions, goal-line owned by Gordon/Achane — on a 4.5-win team whose negative scripts erase early-down grinders. Even his contingency scenario is a split, not a role.
- The usage record is two years of "Concern" across every opportunity metric (21% snaps, 10.3 weighted opps/g, ~1 HVT/g), and his two audition games under load produced −0.68 RYOE/att and a 1.8-YPC fumble game — the new staff watched that and gave the edge to the other guy.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up from team volume in data/team-profiles/MIA.md (built 2026-07-07): ~60.5 plays/g, ~29.5 rush att/g including ~5–6 Willis designed runs/scrambles → ~24 RB carries/g ≈ 408 RB carries/season; ~28 pass att/g ≈ 476 attempts with Achane's near-exclusive claim on RB routes (85 tgt in 2025; Wright and Gordon 9 apiece). Win total 4.5 (BetMGM, early July 2026) → strongly negative script lean, which feeds Achane/checkdowns, not the RB3.
| Scenario | Games | Carries × YPC | Targets → Rec, yds | TDs (xTD-anchored) | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (20th) | ~12 active | 30 × 4.0 = 120 yds (loses RB2 battle decisively; healthy-scratch weeks return; cut/trade risk lives below this line) | 4 → 3 rec, 18 yds | 0–1 | ≈15 |
| Median (50th) | 15 | 65 × 4.2 = 273 yds (RB3/change-of-pace, ~14% carry share) | 10 → 7 rec, 50 yds | 1.5 | ≈45 (3 PPG) |
| Ceiling (80th) | 16 | 115 × 4.3 = 495 yds (wins clear RB2 + Achane misses ~3 games and Wright leads those backfields, wk14-2025-style) | 16 → 11 rec, 80 yds | 3 | ≈90 |
- TD anchor: xTD is near-zero by construction — Gordon is the short-yardage/goal-line hammer (3 rush TD in that role 2025) and Achane kept 8; Wright's inside-5 role is nil (exact 2025 inside-10/5 counts UNVERIFIED — no play-level yardline table in
data/stats/; proxy is the role read plus 2 career rush TDs on 138 carries). Median TDs are long-run outcomes, not goal-line volume. - Committee-math consistency (rb.md §7): Achane's own eval/profile allocates him ~55–60% of carries and the passing downs; Gordon ~20% plus goal line. Wright's median 65 carries fits the remainder without double-counting. The true Achane-lost-for-season outcome (a Kimani Vidal 2025-shape season, see comps) sits *beyond* the 80th percentile because he'd still split with Gordon.
- Games risk: medium — 2025 began with a knee injury (Out wk1, Doubtful wk2 — injuries.csv) and he logged zero snaps until week 7 despite full practice from week 3, i.e., healthy-scratch/availability risk is part of his record; no current injury flag (Sleeper, 2026-07-07). Roster-spot risk (Miami likely keeps 4 RBs; Wright vs Donovan Edwards and others) is folded into the floor.
- Comps (role-shape; stat lines from nflverse cached tables, pulled 2026-07-07): Jaylen Wright 2025 (70 car/9 tgt, 48.2 PPR — his own median), Ollie Gordon II 2025 (70 car/9 tgt, 54.1 PPR — the other half of the same committee), Kendre Miller 2024 (39 car/8 tgt, 29.1 PPR — day-3 back buried behind a paid starter; the floor), Ty Chandler 2024 (56 car/6 tgt, 28.4 PPR — speed-back RB3; floor-to-median), Kimani Vidal 2025 (155 car/22 tgt, 117.9 PPR — the beyond-ceiling archetype: backup who inherited real volume when the starter missed time, cited as the shape of the contingency, not an 80th-percentile outcome).
- External projection cross-check:
data/projections/does not exist (gap noted). Market shorthand: FFC PPR mocks don't draft him at all; Sleeper search-rank 174 ≈ deep-league tail. Directionally consistent with this projection.
Usage profile (2025, MIA, 10 games active — nflverse tables pulled 2026-07-07)
| Metric | Value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | ~21% avg in active games; season max 52% (wk14, Achane hurt); 46% wk18 (Achane out) | Concern (<40%) | Never a base-offense player when Achane is healthy (Achane ran 73–93% most weeks) |
| Opportunity share | ~16% season (79 of ~490 backfield opps; Achane 323, Gordon 79) | Concern (<45%) | Dead-even with Gordon on the season — the "RB2" label is unresolved |
| Weighted opportunities /g | 10.3 (70 car + 2.5×9 tgt over 9 stat games) | Concern (<13) | Change-of-pace sized |
| High-value touches /g | ~1.0 est. (9 tgt; inside-10 carries UNVERIFIED, presumed ~0 — Gordon's role) | Concern (<2.5) | No scoring engine |
| Inside-5 carry share | UNVERIFIED — proxy: Gordon owned short-yardage (3 rush TD there), Achane kept 8 total | Concern | None projected 2026 either |
| Third-down/passing-down participation | On-field for 7.7% of MIA pass plays season-wide (43/561 — computed this run from participation.csv); Achane 73.8% | Concern (<25%) | The passing downs are Achane's outright |
| Routes /g · route participation | ≤4.3 on-field pass plays/g · ~8% proxy; exact routes UNVERIFIED | Concern (<8 · <25%) | 9 targets in 10 games; June 2026 reports flag drops |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED (no provider xFP pulled); actual 5.4 PPG (48.2 PPR / 9 stat games) | — | RB60s-range production |
The late-season split that matters (rb.md §2 reading rule): wk14 vs NYJ (Achane limited to 34% snaps): Wright 24-107-1 on 52% snaps; Gordon 5-17-1. Wk18 vs NE (Achane out): Wright 13-23-0 with a lost fumble on 46% snaps; Gordon 9-9-0 (weekly.csv + snap_counts.csv). That is the entire contingent-value case — Wright was the volume inheritor in 2025 — and also its caveat: wk18 was 1.8 YPC with a fumble, and eight months later the new staff gave Gordon the minicamp edge.
Efficiency (§5 lens — separating back from line, behind a 29th-ranked RBWR line):
| Metric | Value | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPC | 4.11 (2025, 70 att); 3.66 (2024, 68 att); career 3.89 | Neutral raw on tiny samples | rushing.csv 2024–25 |
| NGS RYOE /att | Only 2 qualifying 2025 weeks: −0.68 (wk14), −0.20 (wk18); 2024 wk5: +1.91 (13 att) | Mixed, sample-noise | ngs_rushing.csv 2024–25 |
| MTF /touch · YAC /att | ~0.24 MTF/att and ~3.2–3.4 YCO/att per PFF-sourced reporting surfaced in search (fetched 2026-07-07) — season attribution unclear (2024 vs 2025), treat precision as UNVERIFIED; directionally above-average on <150 touches | Watch | web search (PFF references) |
| Breakaway | 4.38 forty at 208 lbs (2024 combine) = elite speed score; 2025 long runs modest (56-yd game wk17 = 11.2 YPC spike) | Trait elite, output thin | NFL.com combine; weekly.csv |
| Rush success rate | UNVERIFIED | — | — |
| Pass protection | UNVERIFIED grade; proxy is damning — 7.7% pass-play participation and open-practice drop reports (June 2026) → the passing-down gate (rb.md §9) is closed | Concern | participation.csv; SI/PhinPhanatic |
| Ball security | 2 fumbles (1 lost) on 75 touches in 2025 | Concern | rushing.csv/weekly.csv |
Pedigree (deep-pool screens, prospect-pedigree.md — weighted up because the NFL sample is thin):
- Draft capital: 2024 R4 #120 — day-3; "one bad week from committee... require usage proof, not camp hype" (§1). Miami traded a 2025 3rd to move up for him (NFL.com, 2024-04-27), but that investment belonged to Grier/McDaniel — both gone; the Sullivan/Hafley regime owes him nothing, and capital's predictive power decays by year 3 anyway.
- College (Tennessee): 2,297 rush yds at 6.2 YPC, 18 TD in three seasons; but only ~30 career receptions (22 as a junior, 8 before — NFL.com/247Sports, fetched 2026-07-07) — fails the ≥40-reception three-down predictor (prospect-pedigree §2). The NFL sample (15 targets, drop reports) has confirmed the screen.
- Athletic testing: 4.38 forty at 5'10"/208 → elite speed score; RAS UNVERIFIED (not confirmed this run).
- Age/odometer: 23.3 (b. 2003-04-01 — Sleeper, 2026-07-07), NFL year 3. ~146 pro touches + ~400 college touches — nowhere near any cliff; age is the one thing fully on his side.
- Breakout screens: year-2 leap window missed (needed day-1/2 capital ✗, late-season snap ≥60% ✗ — max 52%, competition departing ✗ — Gordon ascending, Achane extended). Post-hype screen fails (requires former day-2+ capital). No screen fires.
Context (cites data/team-profiles/MIA.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Team teardown: new GM (Sullivan), new HC (Hafley), new OC/play-caller (Slowik), new QB (Willis, with a live Ewers competition). All 2025 designed-touch roles void. Stability: low.
- Scheme: Slowik installs a Shanahan-tree wide-zone/PA/RPO offense; the team profile explicitly lists Wright as fitting "the zone track" — Achane is the prototype, Gordon the downhill/short-yardage complement. Slowik on Wright (June 4 presser, miamidolphins.com): he "has some speed," shows "juice" as he gets comfortable — mild, non-committal praise.
- Committee (rb.md §7 2×2): low standalone / diluted contingent. Achane is the paid engine (4yr/$64M ext, $32M gtd, June 2026; 85 targets and 55% carry share in 2025) — not contested at the top. The RB2 job behind him is contested with Ollie Gordon (yr 2), who "gained a slight edge" through OTAs/minicamp (PhinPhanatic/SI, June 2026), with Donovan Edwards and others fighting for the 4th spot. Handcuff three-factor test: starter fragility partial-yes (Achane: 188 lbs, career-high 2025 workload, offseason shoulder clean-up surgery — limited to individual drills at June minicamp, expected full for camp per RotoWire/UPI, May–June 2026); offense quality no (4.5 win total, bottom-10 OL: 29th RBWR, rookie LG); succession clarity no (splits with Gordon at minimum, and Gordon may be ahead). One of three legs ≈ weak handcuff value.
- Game script (explicit): win total 4.5 — negative scripts dominate. Does he leave the field when trailing? Yes, structurally: 7.7% pass-play participation means trailing game states remove him entirely. A no-receiving-role grinder profile on a ≤6.5 win total is the methodology's named red flag (rb.md §12) — it caps even the win-the-RB2-job scenario.
- No new capital threat: Miami's 2026 draft class contains zero RBs (ESPN draft page via team profile) — the one green flag the offseason handed him.
- Roster status: Active, no injury designation, Sleeper depth_chart_order 2 (2026-07-07) — note the feed disagrees with Ourlads/RotoWire (Gordon RB2), which is itself the story: the job is genuinely open, and reporting says Wright needs a strong camp to lock even the RB3/roster spot (PhinPhanatic, June 2026).
Tripwires (re-run on any)
- Camp/preseason reports give Wright the clear RB2 job (first-team reps when Achane rests, preseason snap lead over Gordon) → contingency cleans up; verdict flips toward TARGET as a free handcuff.
- Achane shoulder setback or any missed camp/preseason time → contingent leg fires early; re-run immediately (both Wright and Gordon).
- Gordon injury, trade, or demotion → succession clarity achieved; upgrade.
- Wright cut, traded, or listed RB4 behind Donovan Edwards in August depth charts/preseason usage → floor scenario confirmed; move to AVOID (roster-clog quadrant).
- Any credible report of Wright taking passing-down/two-minute reps (the currently closed gate) → the ceiling assumptions change; re-run.
Sources
data/stats/2025/rushing.csv,receiving.csv,weekly.csv,snap_counts.csv,ngs_rushing.csv,injuries.csv,participation.csv,pbp_summary.csv;data/stats/2024/same tables — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (all 2024–25 volume/share/snap/weekly numbers; pass-play participation 43/561 = 7.7% and Achane 73.8%/Gordon 21.2% computed this run from participation.csv; wk14/wk18 splits; comp lines for Gordon/Miller/Chandler/Vidal)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— Wright: no FFC PPR mock ADP, listed via sleeper-searchrank tail (2026-07-07); Achane 9.3data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 23, DOB 2003-04-01, 5'10"/208, Tennessee, years_exp 2, Active/no injury, depth_chart_order 2, search_rank 174data/team-profiles/MIA.md(built 2026-07-07) — Hafley/Slowik/Willis regime change, wide-zone identity + "Wright fits the zone track," RB committee read (Achane workhorse ext 4yr/$64M; Gordon short-yardage), OL ranks (RBWR 70%/29th), win total 4.5 (BetMGM), team volume inputs (~60.5 plays/g, ~29.5 rush/~28 pass att/g), no 2026 RB draft capital, vacated-touch math- Web (fetched 2026-07-07): PhinPhanatic — Gordon's minicamp edge, Poupart/SI "issues catching the ball," roster-spot stakes · miamidolphins.com — Slowik June 4 presser ("has some speed," comfort/juice) · TheFantasyFootballers — Wright OTA note, backup-role competition vs Gordon/Edwards · NFL.com — 2024 draft: MIA traded a 2025 3rd to take Wright at #120; 4.38 forty · 247Sports/WATE — Tennessee career: 2,297 yds, 6.2 YPC, 18 TD, ~30 career receptions · RotoWire — Achane limited to individual drills at June minicamp (shoulder) · UPI — Achane recovering from shoulder clean-up surgery, 2026-05-27 · PFF-referenced MTF/YCO figures via search (season attribution unclear — flagged UNVERIFIED-precision in-table)
- UNVERIFIED (marked in-table, not fabricated): inside-10/inside-5 carry counts and team shares; exact routes/route participation (proxied via participation.csv); rush success rate; pass-pro grade; provider xFP; RAS; MTF/YCO season attribution