Washington Commanders

WAS — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: the Commanders collapsed to 5-12 after the 2024 NFC Championship run — dead last in yards allowed, 27th in points allowed (NFL.com/ESPN coordinator-firing stories, fetched 2026-07-07). Jayden Daniels missed 10 games across three injuries (knee sprain, hamstring, Week-9 dislocated non-throwing elbow — no surgery; commanders.com/Newsweek, fetched 2026-07-07); Marcus Mariota started 10. Both coordinators were fired 2026-01-06 (ESPN/NFL.com/AP), and Quinn had already taken over defensive play-calling from Joe Whitt Jr. after 10 games (NFL.com, fetched 2026-07-07). The 2026 offseason: first-time OC/play-caller David Blough, first-time NFL DC Daronte Jones, a $100M edge signing (Oweh), a rebuilt CB room, and a teardown of the 2025 pass-catching room around McLaurin.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: David Blough (OC) — confirmed: promoted from assistant QB coach to OC 2026-01 (ESPN, fetched 2026-07-07); commanders.com June 2026 headline: "Blough wants to elevate personnel in first year as play caller"; NBC Sports/PFT: "Quinn expects more of Jayden Daniels under center with David Blough calling offensive plays" (both fetched 2026-07-07). Quinn (defense-side HC) does not call the offense.
• Tenure with team: 3rd year in the building (assistant QBs coach 2024–25), 1st as OC/play-caller · Prior relationship with QB1: Daniels' position-room coach both NFL seasons; ran the 2026 under-center install with Daniels through OTAs/minicamp (commanders.com minicamp notebook, June 2026, fetched 2026-07-07)

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years): none — first-time play-caller at any level; the least-experienced coordinator in the NFL, two seasons as an NFL coach (A to Z Sports, fetched 2026-07-07). Per methodology §9, tree/mentor prior only — every tendency low-confidence:

Read: Blough is a 30-ish first-time caller installing a Ben Johnson-branch offense — the exact inverse of Kingsbury's league-extreme no-huddle/shotgun operation (50.2% no-huddle was nearly 3× the #2 team). Expect huddle, under-center, run-married play-action and more designed structure for Daniels; Blough: under center "opens up some different schemes in the run game" (clutchpoints/commanders.com, fetched 2026-07-07). Every tendency is low-confidence until on tape — methodology §9 install drag applies in full, all Kingsbury-era designed roles (Deebo manufactured touches, tempo volume) are void, and the Johnson-tree WR1-feeding history plus 224 vacated targets point the passing game hard at McLaurin, with the RB/TE checkdown layer projected healthier than 2025's 12.7% RB target share.

QB situation

• QB1: Jayden Daniels — 2024 R1 #2, rookie deal through 2027 + 5th-yr option; benching risk: none. Health: Week-9 dislocated elbow (non-throwing arm) needed no surgery; full participant running the starters at OTAs/minicamp, "looking comfortable... taking snaps under center" (commanders.com minicamp notebook; SI/Yahoo camp preview — fetched 2026-07-07). Games-risk is medium — 10 missed games in 2025 across three separate injuries, and his scramble volume is structural.
• Backup: Marcus Mariota — re-signed 1-yr/$7M (up to $11M w/ incentives), March 2026 (ESPN/heavy.com, fetched 2026-07-07) — tier B: 10 starts in 2025 (139/227, 1,695 yds, 10 TD/7 INT + 50 car/297 yds — passing.csv/rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). Functional; the offense compresses. QB3: R7 #223 Athan Kaliakmanis (commanders.com draft tracker; Ourlads — fetched 2026-07-07).
• Contingency line: If Daniels misses time: Mariota, tier B — expect pass rate −3–5 pts, aDOT down (screens/checkdowns up), QB-run component survives (~5.9 ypc in 2025 relief). McLaurin's target share holds but deep-ball efficiency drops; slot/RB/TE profiles hold best. With games-risk medium + tier B, position evals widen ranges down moderately (not the tier-C cliff).

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Ourlads + Hogs Haven/Yahoo, fetched 2026-07-07): LT Laremy Tunsil (802 snaps 2025 — snap_counts.csv; extended this offseason, now the NFL's highest-paid OL — Hogs Haven/Yahoo, fetched 2026-07-07), LG Chris Paul (926 snaps; re-signed 1-yr — CONTESTED with Brandon Coleman, 390 snaps), C Nick Allegretti (260 snaps as reserve; the plan at C after Tyler Biadasz was released Feb 2026 and signed LAC 3-yr/$30M — NFL.com/beat reporting, fetched 2026-07-07), RG Sam Cosmi (545 snaps; worked back from the Jan-2025 ACL), RT Josh Conerly Jr. (1,054 snaps as 2025 R1 rookie; "excellent in the second half" of 2025 — Hogs Haven). Depth: Coleman, Andrew Wylie (362 snaps), R6 #209 C Matt Gulbin (rookie flag), Trent Scott.
• Interior vs edge: the tackles are the strength — Tunsil is a top-tier pass-protecting LT and Conerly enters year 2 ascending. The interior is the flag: Allegretti is a career backup replacing a 954-snap starter at C (only rookie R6 Gulbin behind him), LG is an open Paul/Coleman battle, and Cosmi is one more year removed from the ACL. Interior pressure kills the deep game and QB efficiency (methodology §4) — a real concern for a first-year under-center install; edge protection should hold, so no compression flag.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: outside-zone base with gap/duo mix per the Ben Johnson-tree install reporting (markbullock.substack/Hogs Haven, fetched 2026-07-07) — RB fits: one-cut, downhill-with-burst profiles. Croskey-Merritt (one-cut slasher) fits; Kaytron Allen is the short-yardage/duo body (216 lbs, biggest back on roster — roundtable.io, fetched 2026-07-07); Rachaad White fits as the passing-down back, not the zone-runner.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay-adjacent (Ben Johnson branch) — huddle, under center, run-married PA targeting the middle of the field behind sucked-up LBs, motion/shift variety (markbullock.substack/clutchpoints, fetched 2026-07-07). Implications: mid aDOT with intermediate in-breakers and a real YAC layer; slot and TE roles gain vs the 2025 spread; the WR1 can carry 25%+ TS in this tree (St. Brown precedent); RB targets should climb from 2025's 12.7%. All low-confidence until the install is on tape (§9).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Deebo Samuel — 99 tgt / 17 car (played out his deal; still an unsigned UFA league-wide as of early July 2026 — ESPN remaining-FA fits/PFN, fetched 2026-07-07)
• TE Zach Ertz — 72 tgt (unsigned; tore ACL Week 14, expects clearance ~Week 1 and wants to play — has talked with both WAS and PHI; not on roster as of 2026-07-07 — NFL.com/CBS/atozsports, fetched 2026-07-07)
• WR Chris Moore — 23 tgt / 1 car · WR Noah Brown — 10 tgt · WR Robbie Chosen — 9 tgt (all off the depth chart — Ourlads/SI roster projections, fetched 2026-07-07)
• RB Austin Ekeler — 7 tgt / 14 car · RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. — 4 tgt / 112 car ("replaced by White, Allen and Ford" — roundtable.io/SI tracker, fetched 2026-07-07)

Vacated targets: ~224 · Vacated carries: ~144 — nearly double the ≥120 feeding band (methodology §6), but real capital arrived (Okonkwo money, R3 Williams), so read it as a McLaurin feed plus a claims race among arrivals, not a single-player windfall. Note: RB Jeremy McNichols (31 tgt / 44 car) re-signed 1-yr ≤$2M in March 2026 and does NOT count as vacated (commanders.com/Washington Times/PFR, fetched 2026-07-07).

Arrivals (claim — ESPN FA tracker + commanders.com draft tracker, fetched 2026-07-07):

• TE Chig Okonkwo — 3-yr/$30M (ESPN/SI): mid-tier TE1 money, brought in as the "proven move TE who can win outside or in the slot"; 79 tgt / 56-560-2 at TEN 2025 (receiving.csv). Presumptive #2 target claim.
• RB Rachaad White — 1-yr/$2M ($1.715M gtd), March 2026 (Washington Post/Spotrac): 45 tgt / 132 car at TB 2025 (receiving/rushing.csv); Daniels' Arizona State teammate. Passing-down claim only at that price.
• WR Antonio Williams — R3 #71 (Clemson): "NFL-ready route-runner"; ran most college routes from the slot and opened OTAs playing "more inside" (commanders.com/Hogs Haven, fetched 2026-07-07).
• RB Kaytron Allen — R6 #187 (Penn St.) · RB Jerome Ford — 1-yr (32 tgt / 24 car CLE 2025) · RB Jeremy McNichols — re-signed 1-yr · WR Dyami Brown — return via JAX (terms UNVERIFIED) · WR Van Jefferson — depth (terms UNVERIFIED) · QB Kaliakmanis R7 #223.

Projected pecking order (Ourlads depth chart + OTA/minicamp reporting, fetched 2026-07-07):

RB committee split: Croskey-Merritt early-down lead + goal line (36.2% carry share, 8 rush TD 2025 — rushing.csv; RB1 on Ourlads) ~50–55% of carries; Rachaad White passing downs + rotation ~25% of carries and the plurality of RB targets; Kaytron Allen (R6) short-yardage power ~10–15% ("probably 99% he makes the 53" — Standig via Hogs Haven, fetched 2026-07-07); McNichols/Ford veteran depth/ST. Lead job not contested; the passing-down role is White's to lose with McNichols the incumbent insurance.

TE1/TE2 usage: Okonkwo is the flexed move-TE and the only TE target claim; John Bates is the blocking Y (16 tgt 2025) and Ben Sinnott the year-3 mix (13 tgt) — both route-poor. Beat analysis floats real 12/13-personnel usage under Blough (Hogs Haven, fetched 2026-07-07): Bates/Sinnott would eat snaps, not targets.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 7.5 (BetMGM O −130 / U +110; DraftKings 7.5 −110/−110 — BetMGM blog/CBS Sports, as-of 2026-07-07) → script lean: neutral (7.5–9 band), juiced overs signal market belief in a bounce-back
• Projected plays/game: ~61 · Projected pass rate: ~55–56% dropbacks
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~29–30 · rush attempts/game: ~27 (inputs below)
• Inputs: WAS 2025 = 60.9 plays/gm, 59.6% dropback rate, 27.6 team pass att/gm, 24.6 designed-rush plays/gm (pbp_summary + passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). Adjust: a huddle-based install replaces the NFL-high 50.2% no-huddle → pace no faster despite better health (~61 plays); Johnson-tree run/PA lean + Quinn's stated desire to run more and protect the defense (ESPN firing story) + a healthy Daniels' scramble/designed-run volume trims dropbacks to ~55–56%. 61 × 0.555 ≈ 34 dropbacks − ~2 sacks − ~3–4 scrambles ≈ 29–30 att; 61 × 0.445 ≈ 27 designed rushes (incl. ~5–6 Daniels carries; scrambles add to player rushing lines on top). Neutral win total = no script adjustment. Low confidence — first-time caller (§9).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Daronte Jones (DC) — confirmed: hired from MIN Jan 2026 (ESPN, fetched 2026-07-07); 2026 is "his first time calling defenses at the NFL level" and Quinn has said Jones installs his own system (commanders.com 5-things / SI / Hogs Haven, fetched 2026-07-07). Quinn called the 2025 defense himself after Week 10 — that arrangement ended with the Jones hire.
• Tenure with team: 1st year · New DC: yes → new-DC protocol per methodology §8 — 2025 WAS scheme stats are void (doubly so: they were a Whitt/Quinn split). dc_new: true; DST evals cap confidence.
• Front/scheme family: hybrid/multiple, Flores-tree — Jones: "There aren't too many schemes that I have not been a part of… I want to pull from" each; disguise/versatility emphasis, players lining up in multiple spots (SI/roundtable, fetched 2026-07-07). First-time NFL DC (prior DC stop: LSU 2021, where he called plays); most recent stop is Brian Flores' Minnesota staff — that pressure-heavy system is the weak prior (ESPN/commanders.com, fetched 2026-07-07).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first — ESPN FA tracker, commanders.com, Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07):
• IN — edge Odafe Oweh, 4-yr/$100M ($68M gtd) — premium-edge money (7.5 sacks in 12 games at LAC 2025 + 3-sack playoff game — ESPN; weekly.csv verified); dst.md §3's +2–4 pt pressure shift applies. IN — edge K'Lavon Chaisson, 1-yr (7.5 sacks at NE 2025 — weekly.csv; $ terms UNVERIFIED); edge/DL Charles Omenihu, 1-yr/$4M up to $7M (3.5 sacks, 13 QB hits at KC 2025 — PFR rumors/commanders.com). Dorance Armstrong returns off 2025 IR (rosters.csv RES flag).
• OUT — CB1 Marshon Lattimore, released Feb 2026 ($18.5M cap savings — NFL.com). Rebuilt CB room: Trey Amos (2025 R2) + Mike Sainristil outside, IN — CB Amik Robertson 2-yr/$16M ($9.3M gtd) (slot/outside, via DET), CB Rasul Douglas 1-yr/$3.8M (July 2026 — The Banner/PFR), CB Ahkello Witherspoon (depth; terms UNVERIFIED).
• IN — LB Sonny Styles R1 #7 (Ohio St.) + LB Leo Chenal 3-yr ($ UNVERIFIED); DT Tim Settle 3-yr ($ UNVERIFIED); S Nick Cross 2-yr; S Will Harris (Ourlads FS starter). OUT — LB Bobby Wagner and edge Von Miller (both WAS 2025 per rosters.csv; unsigned/off the depth chart — Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — new DC, rebuilt CB room, no 2026 charting; nothing in Jones' MIN role suggests a travel-CB structure (Flores shells are pattern/zone-driven).

Read: a first-time NFL DC from the league's most blitz-extreme tree (MIN sent 5+ on 47% of dropbacks behind an 81% zone shell), handed real edge money (Oweh/Chaisson/Omenihu) and R1 linebacker speed — the ceiling is MIN-2025-style sack/takeaway variance, the floor is a year-1 install drag on a unit that just allowed 26.5 PPG with a historically bad 11 takeaways. Boom/bust weekly DST profile; takeaway regression is the cheap upside, and weeks 1–4 trust is capped by dc_new.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: first-time play-caller (automatic low), stacked on a C-position turnover + open LG battle on the OL, an open WR2/slot situation, and a scheme inversion (NFL-high no-huddle/gun → huddle/under-center). Daniels returning as QB1 and 4/5 OL continuity keep this from a total teardown, but §9 install-drag and role-void rules apply to every 2025 usage pattern. Defensive trust travels separately: dc_new: true caps DST confidence.
• Watch items: (1) any sign Quinn adds a play-calling safety net or Blough struggles in preseason — the play-caller is the single biggest fragility (Quinn hot-seat chatter already circulating — Hogs Haven/riggosrag, fetched 2026-07-07); (2) Daniels' durability in padded practices; (3) the WR2/Z battle (Burks vs McCaffrey vs D. Brown vs Jefferson) and any veteran WR addition — Deebo-class FAs remain unsigned league-wide; (4) rookie Williams' slot grip vs Lane/McCaffrey; (5) LG (Paul vs Coleman) and Allegretti's hold on C; (6) a possible Ertz reunion (he wants to play and has talked to WAS — would claw back part of the vacated 72 targets from Okonkwo/Sinnott); (7) White vs McNichols passing-down usage in preseason; (8) win total moving ≥1.5 off 7.5; (9) Omenihu/Armstrong health — the pressure prior depends on a whole edge room.