New York Jets

NYJ — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: the Jets went 3-14 in HC Aaron Glenn's first year — 29th in scoring and total yards, a historically bad defense (3 takeaways, 0 INTs, 29.6 PPG allowed — nflverse def_summary, pulled 2026-07-07), and a mid-season fire sale (Sauce Gardner to IND, Quinnen Williams to DAL, Nov 2025). Glenn then replaced 12 of 22 coaches (ESPN staff-overhaul story, Feb 2026): OC Tanner Engstrand out Jan 27, DC Steve Wilks had already been fired in-season after 14 games. 2026 is a near-total reset: new play-caller (Frank Reich), new QB (Geno Smith), Glenn calling the defense himself, and three first-round rookies (EDGE David Bailey #2, TE Kenyon Sadiq #16, WR Omar Cooper Jr. #30).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Frank Reich (OC) — confirmed: hired 2026-02-04 (newyorkjets.com, 2026-02-04); "Reich will call offensive plays" and Glenn "will let Reich run the show on offense" (ESPN staff-overhaul story, Feb 2026). Engstrand and the Jets parted ways Jan 27, 2026 after one season (NFL.com/ESPN, Jan 2026).
• Tenure with team: Year 1 (out of NFL coaching since being fired by CAR in Nov 2023) · Prior relationship with QB1: none — Reich and Glenn were teammates on the 1996 Jets, but Reich has never coached Geno Smith (newyorkjets.com/ESPN, Feb 2026).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — PHI 2016–17 OC under Pederson, who called plays):

Read: Reich is a West Coast, run-to-set-up-pass caller (nysportsday, 2026-05-12) whose signature is funneling targets to TEs and RBs at WRs' expense — TE target share ≥20% in 8 of his 10 OC/HC seasons, RB share ≥19.2% in 6 of 10, WRs just 54.8% combined (CBS Sports, 2026). He has "consistently used multiple running backs — one for rushing downs, one for passing downs" (CBS Sports, 2026). Adjusted for this roster: the two first-round pass-catchers (Sadiq, Cooper) fit his TE/slot-friendly shape, Garrett Wilson's target ceiling compresses, and Breece Hall — the rare back who owns both run and passing downs — is the exception his committee history may bend for. Expect year-1 install drag (methodology §9): slower pace and vanilla motion early, and note the stated philosophical tension with Glenn's run-focused preference (CBS Sports, 2026).

QB situation

• QB1: Geno Smith — acquired from LV 2026-03-10 for a 2026 6th-rounder (LV also sent a 2026 7th and ate the bulk of his $18.5M 2026 guarantee; contract renegotiated on arrival — ESPN, 2026-03-10). Age 36 in Oct 2026, coming off a league-worst-tying 17-INT season on a 2-10 Raiders team (SI/Heavy via web search, as-of 2026-07-07). Benching risk: low early, live if the season craters — R4 rookie Cade Klubnik is the developmental pivot on a 5.5-win team.
• Backup: Bailey Zappe — tier C. Open competition, but Glenn named Zappe the current No. 2 at OTAs ("Geno is our No. 1, Bailey, he was our No. 2, but that can change" — thejetpress/profootballrumors, May–June 2026); room is Smith / Zappe / Klubnik (R4#110) / Brady Cook (SI depth chart, June 2026).
• Contingency line: If Smith misses time: Zappe or Klubnik, tier C — pass volume and efficiency both crater, aDOT compresses to screens/checkdowns, every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier; Wilson's treatment worst-hit, Hall and the short-area TEs hold relative value, positive-script run game becomes the offense. Per methodology §3, widen all NYJ pass-catcher ranges downward.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (SI depth chart post-minicamp, June 2026; Jets X-Factor, 2026-07-04): LT Olu Fashanu (2024 R1, age 23), LG Dylan Parham (NEW — signed from LV, 2 yr/up to $20M, replaces John Simpson who left for BAL — Jets X-Factor, 2026-03-11), C Josh Myers, RG Joe Tippmann (extended 4 yr/$66.4M, $34M gtd — NFL.com tracker, 2026), RT Armand Membou (2025 R1#7, age 22). All five 2025 line starters logged 1,000+ snaps (snap_counts.csv) — elite continuity.
• Interior vs edge: the tackles are the strength — two ascending first-round bookends. The interior is the watch point: Myers has "consistently struggled" (52.9 PFF — Jets X-Factor, 2026-07-04) and Parham is new at LG. Interior pressure kills the deep game — a real cap on Geno's downfield efficiency and a reason to temper deep-aDOT projections (Mitchell) more than the underneath game (Cooper/Sadiq/Hall). The 60 sacks allowed in 2025 were substantially QB-driven and should fall with a rhythm passer.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: zone-based with duo/gap mixed — presumed from Reich's IND history and Hall/Davis one-cut profiles; 2026 install specifics UNVERIFIED (no charting yet). RB fits: Hall's one-cut burst fits zone; Braelon Allen (250 lbs, back from ACL — SI depth chart, June 2026) is the downhill/short-yardage complement.
• Pass-game family: West Coast — timing, rhythm, precision passing (nysportsday, 2026-05-12). Implications: low-to-mid aDOT, PPR floors over ceilings, RB targets healthy, TEs heavily featured (≥20% TE target share in 8 of Reich's 10 seasons — CBS Sports, 2026). Slot (Cooper) gets schemed volume; boundary deep threats are the least-fed profile. Sadiq + Mason Taylor "will receive the majority of the reps" in 12-personnel sets under Reich (SI depth chart, June 2026) — expect 12% → 20%+ two-TE growth off the 2025 base (19.2% 12 personnel — nflverse participation, computed 2026-07-07).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR John Metchie III — 44 tgt / 3 car (not tendered as RFA; signed CAR 1 yr/$1.9M — panthers.com/Spotrac, Mar 2026)
• QB Justin Fields — 71 car (traded to KC for a 2027 6th — Yahoo/suntimes, 2026-03)
• QB Tyrod Taylor — 27 car (not on 2026 roster — SI depth chart, June 2026; destination UNVERIFIED)
• WR Josh Reynolds — 21 tgt (gone per beat coverage and June depth chart; destination UNVERIFIED)
• WR Tyler Johnson — 18 tgt (not on June depth chart; destination UNVERIFIED)
• WR Allen Lazard — 18 tgt (permitted to seek trade in Feb 2026 preview — newyorkjets.com; not on June depth chart)
• RB Khalil Herbert — 16 car / 4 tgt (not on June depth chart)
• TE Stone Smartt — 9 tgt (not on June depth chart)

Vacated targets: ~115 of 472 (24%) · Vacated carries: ~117 (98 of them QB carries — Fields/Taylor)

Arrivals (claim):

• TE Kenyon Sadiq — R1#16 (newyorkjets.com, Apr 2026). Draft's top TE; 4.39 forty (fastest TE at the combine in 14 years); 51-560-8 at Oregon in 2025. Listed TE1 over Mason Taylor after minicamp (SI depth chart, June 2026). Presumptive claim.
• WR Omar Cooper Jr. — R1#30 (Jets traded up with SF, sending 33 + 179 — ESPN draft tracker, Apr 2026). Starting slot receiver after minicamp (SI depth chart, June 2026).
• QB Geno Smith — trade (6th-rounder; ESPN, 2026-03-10).
• WR Tim Patrick — 1-yr vet depth, inside/outside versatility (jetnation, 2026-05-14; terms UNVERIFIED).
• QB Cade Klubnik — R4#110 (via trade with CIN — ESPN draft tracker, Apr 2026).
• Retained claims: RB Breece Hall franchise-tagged 2026-03-03, then extended 3 yr/$45.75M, $29M gtd ($15.25M APY, 3rd among RBs — ESPN/NFL Network, 2026-05-11). WR Garrett Wilson already on 4-yr/$130M extension (July 2025 — ESPN); fully healthy, full OTA participant after a no-surgery knee injury cost him 10 games in 2025 (newyorkjets.com, 2026-05-29).

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

RB committee split: Early-down: Breece Hall (lead — RB1 by extension and depth chart, SI June 2026), Braelon Allen rotational; Passing-down: Hall (Isaiah Davis change-of-pace — 5.6 YPC in 2025, SI June 2026); Goal-line: CONTESTED — Hall vs Braelon Allen (250 lbs, back from ACL; Reich historically splits backfields, so Allen's short-yardage claim is live). Kene Nwangwu re-signed as the returner (1 yr/$2M — ESPN tracker, Mar 2026).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 5.5 (DraftKings, over −120 / under +100, as-of 2026-07-01 via CBS Sports; steam to the over from under −140 in Feb; FanDuel alt ladder centers 5.5, as-of 2026-07-07) → script lean: negative (≤7 band)
• Projected plays/game: ~62 (2025 base 61.2 — nflverse pbp_summary; Reich install drag ≈ neutral pace, negative script adds hurry-up snaps) · Projected pass rate: ~59–60% dropback (Reich career 58.8% pass-play rate — CBS Sports; negative script pushes up, Glenn's stated run preference and Hall's contract pull down; 2025 baseline 61.2% was scramble-inflated)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~25 (inputs: 62 plays × ~60% = ~37 dropbacks, minus ~2.6 sacks and ~1.2 Geno scrambles ≈ 33 attempts; ~25 designed runs + scrambles ≈ 25–26 rushes. 2025 actuals: 29.1 pass att / 26.8 rush att per game — passing.csv/rushing.csv; the shift is Fields' 98 QB carries leaving with a pocket passer arriving)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Aaron Glenn (HC) — confirmed: "I did it four years in Detroit... play-calling is my superpower" — Glenn made it official at the Combine that he calls the defensive plays in 2026 (newyorkjets.com, 2026-02-24; NFL.com "The Insiders," Feb 2026). Brian Duker holds the DC title (hired 2026-01-28 from Miami, where he was passing-game coordinator — ESPN, Feb 2026) and "will handle all other responsibilities."
• Tenure with team: Glenn year 2 as HC, year 1 as NYJ defensive caller; Duker is a first-time DC · New DC: yes (dc_new: true) — 2025 scheme stats are void (three different defensive callers in 2025 alone: Wilks fired after 14 games, interim Chris Harris the final 3 — ESPN, Dec 2025).
• Front/scheme family: "multiple" 4-3-base — Glenn: elements of 4-3 and 3-4, but he is "a 4-3 defensive architect first and foremost" (jetsxfactor, 2026-03-31 and 2026-02-02); Detroit under Glenn ran hybrid odd/even fronts with split-field quarters shells over a man-heavy core (Match Quarters, 2024).

2025 NYJ rates below are context only (void under the new caller); Glenn's DET priors are the operative read:

2025 results context: 29.6 PPG allowed, +0.147 EPA/play allowed, and an all-time-low 3 takeaways with 0 INTs (nflverse def_summary, pulled 2026-07-07) — takeaway "regression" here is pure upside.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• Edge: overhauled. OUT: Jermaine Johnson (7.5 sacks, 17 starts in 2025) traded to TEN straight-up for DT T'Vondre Sweat (ESPN/tennesseetitans.com, Mar 2026). IN: David Bailey, R1#2 overall — "best pure pass rusher in the class" (SI, Apr 2026); Joseph Ossai 3 yr/$34.5M, $22.5M gtd (ESPN tracker, Mar 2026); Kingsley Enagbare 1 yr/$10M. Will McDonald IV retained on his exercised 5th-year option (profootballrumors, Apr 2026). Net: premium capital added — the dst.md §3 pressure-shift flag fires positive.
• CB: rebuilt post-Gardner (traded Nov 2025). CB1 Brandon Stephens returns (3 yr/$36M, signed Mar 2025 — SI, June 2026); Nahshon Wright signed 1 yr/$3.5M off a 5-INT 2025 in CHI and leads the other boundary spot (SI/profootballrumors, June–July 2026); D'Angelo Ponds R2#50 is the slot nickel after minicamp (SI depth chart, June 2026); Azareye'h Thomas (2025 R3) contends. Multiple CB spots formally open into camp (profootballrumors, 2026-07).
• S/LB/DL: S Minkah Fitzpatrick acquired from MIA for a 2026 7th + 3 yr/$40M extension — Duker coached him in Miami in 2025 (NFL.com/ESPN, 2026-03-11); S Dane Belton (1 yr/up to $6M), S Andre Cisco re-signed; LB Demario Davis (2 yr/$22M, $15M gtd — age 37); DT T'Vondre Sweat (trade), DT Harrison Phillips (terms UNVERIFIED), DT David Onyemata 1 yr/$10.5M (ESPN tracker, Mar 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — no established traveling CB1; Stephens has been sides-locked historically and the room is in open competition (SI/profootballrumors, June–July 2026).

Read: expect a top-of-league blitz rate and man-heavy coverage the moment Glenn's install takes — his DET identity — which makes NYJ a boom/bust weekly DST and an upgrade spot for opposing man-beating WRs. The personnel bet is real (R1#2 edge, Ossai, Minkah, two new CBs) but this is a year-1 install on a 3-takeaway defense: treat early-season DST value as speculative and confidence-capped (dc_new: true).

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: two-plus major changes — new play-caller (Reich, year 1) and new QB1 (Geno Smith), plus a rookie R1 starting in the slot, a TE1 job flipping to a rookie, and an open backup-QB competition. OL continuity (4 of 5 returning) is the lone high-stability input.
• Watch items: (1) Geno's leash — 36 years old, 17 INTs in 2025; any Klubnik buzz in camp is a tripwire; (2) Sadiq vs Mason Taylor target split in preseason usage; (3) Cooper Jr. slot snaps vs Mitchell/Patrick — rookie WR roles are camp-fragile; (4) goal-line committee (Hall vs Braelon Allen); (5) C Josh Myers — the interior weak spot, watch for a swap; (6) win total steam (over −120 and climbing — a move to 6.5+ softens the negative-script lean); (7) CB competition (Wright/Thomas/Ponds) for the defensive identity section.