Minnesota Vikings

MIN — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Vikings went 9-8 and missed the playoffs on the back of a top-5 defense and a bottom-5 offense (58.0 plays/gm, −0.094 EPA/play — nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07). J.J. McCarthy's first starting season cratered (35.6 QBR in 10 starts — ESPN, 2026-03-12). The franchise then reset around the QB: GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah fired 2026-01-30 (vikings.com), Seahawks assistant GM Nolan Teasley hired as GM post-draft (ESPN/vikingsterritory, May–June 2026), and Kyler Murray signed 2026-03-12 after his Cardinals release. Coaching staff (HC/OC/DC) fully retained.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Kevin O'Connell (HC) — confirmed: vikings.com 2026 staff announcement (2026-02-24) describes offensive play-calling as O'Connell with OC Wes Phillips, with new assistant OC Chris O'Hara handling "scripts and wristbands and call sheets"; O'Connell has called MIN's plays since 2022 and all 2026 QB/offense reporting runs through him (ESPN, 2026-03-12 and 2026-04-02). No reporting suggests a hand-off.
• Tenure with team: 5th season as HC/caller (2022–) · Prior relationship with QB1: none with Murray before 2026; O'Connell says the offense will adapt to Murray's shotgun-heavy preferences and expand run-game formations beyond MIN's under-center base (ESPN, 2026-04-02).

Last 3 play-calling stops (O'Connell's only play-calling stop is MIN 2022–25; rows are his last three seasons):

Read: O'Connell is a McVay-tree caller who passes slightly over expectation (+1.4% career PROE), feeds a true alpha (Jefferson ≥29.8% TS in each of the last two seasons regardless of QB), keeps RB targets healthy-neutral (16–17%), and leans 11 personnel with a real 12-personnel package (~20%) that keeps Josh Oliver on the field. The 2025 volume numbers (58 plays/gm) are a bad-QB artifact, not a pace identity — 2024 with functional QB play was 64.1. Roster adjustment for 2026: Murray's shotgun/RPO preferences and scramble rate should trim dropbacks slightly and add a designed QB-run component O'Connell has never had, but nothing in Murray's profile threatens Jefferson's target claim.

QB situation

• QB1: Kyler Murray — 1-yr, $36.8M salary of which MIN pays only $1.3M (ARI pays the rest post-release); deal bars franchise/transition tag (ESPN, 2026-03-12). Named the "unabashed frontrunner" through OTAs/minicamp and a −770 favorite for the Week 1 job (dailynorseman June 2026; vikingsterritory 2026-07-04). Benching risk: low — one-year rental with R1 pedigree behind him, but O'Connell publicly kept it a "competitive situation" (ESPN, 2026-04-02).
• Backup: J.J. McCarthy — tier B: 2024 R1 (#10) capital, went 6-4 as the 2025 starter but with a 35.6 QBR; functional floor, offense compresses (−aDOT, more screens/checkdowns). QB3 Carson Wentz re-signed 1-yr (vikings.com/CBS, March 2026). McCarthy drew trade inquiries around the Murray signing (~R4-5 value per beat reporting — vikingsterritory/purpleptsd, spring 2026); if he's dealt, the backup becomes Wentz — tier B−/C.
• Contingency line: If Murray misses time: McCarthy, tier B — pass volume roughly holds (MIN passed 61.7% even with him in 2025) but efficiency and aDOT drop; Jefferson's volume survives (30.1% TS in 2025 with McCarthy/Wentz) while his TD equity thins (2 TD in 2025); deep/intermediate profiles (Addison) hurt most; Hockenson/RB checkdowns gain.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (vikingsterritory, 2026-07-04; vikings.com OL offseason piece, June 2026): LT Christian Darrisaw (INJURY FLAG — 10 starts in 2025, 5 ended early, finished on IR; O'Connell expects all 17 games with a maintenance plan — ESPN, 2026-04-02), LG Donovan Jackson (Yr 2, 2025 R1), C Blake Brandel (converted guard, first-ever C reps were his 6 starts there in 2025; took all starting snaps at OTAs — atozsports/vikingsterritory, June 2026), RG Will Fries, RT Brian O'Neill. Depth: R3 #97 Caleb Tiernan (swing T), Michael Jurgens / R7 Gavin Gerhardt (C), Ryan Van Demark (T). Departed: C Ryan Kelly retired 2026-03-06 after three 2025 concussions (ESPN/NFL.com).
• Interior vs edge: the tackles are top-shelf when healthy (Darrisaw/O'Neill) and the guards (Jackson/Fries) are the unit's strength — 3rd in RBWR rides on them. The soft spot is dead center: Brandel is a conversion project between two good guards, and interior pressure is the kill-shot for a 5'10" QB's sightlines. 2025's 25th PBWR was substantially injury-driven; with Darrisaw healthy this profiles as a mid-or-better pass-pro unit, but fade deep-aDOT efficiency if Darrisaw misses time or Brandel loses the job midseason.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: zone-lean (wide/mid zone base) with gap/duo mixed, now explicitly expanding shotgun/spread run looks for Murray beyond the historical under-center base (ESPN, 2026-04-02) — RB fits: Aaron Jones (one-cut zone veteran) and Jordan Mason (downhill duo/short-yardage hammer) both fit their halves of the split; Murray adds a read-option constraint the scheme never had.
• Pass-game family: McVay/Shanahan tree — motion-heavy, PA-heavy (26.4% of dropbacks in 2025 — FTN), intermediate in-breakers and schemed YAC, hybridizing toward Murray's shotgun/RPO comfort in 2026. Implications: slot/YAC profiles are fed (Jennings), the alpha's target share can be enormous (Jefferson ~30%), aDOT mid; Murray's scramble game historically trades some dump-off volume for off-schedule deep shots.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Jalen Nailor — 53 tgt / 2 car (signed LV, 3-yr/$35M, $23M gtd, 2026-03-09 — atozsports/thevikingage)
• WR Adam Thielen — 18 tgt (waived 2025-12-01; retired 2026-01-14 — Star Tribune/NFL.com)
• RB Ty Chandler — 4 tgt / 17 car (not on 2026 depth chart — vikingsterritory, 2026-07-04)
• RB Cam Akers — 1 tgt / 5 car (not on 2026 depth chart — same)
• FB C.J. Ham — 2 tgt / 3 car (retired 2026-02-05 — dailynorseman/vikings.com)
• TE Ben Sims — 6 tgt (not among top-3 TEs on 2026 depth chart; status UNVERIFIED)

Vacated targets: ~78 (≈84 incl. Sims) · Vacated carries: ~27 — well below the 120-target feeding band (methodology §6); the WR3 vacancy was immediately re-bought (Jennings). QB change note: McCarthy's 37 carries shift to Murray, whose designed/scramble run volume historically runs higher — a rushing-QB tax on RB goal-line carries.

Arrivals (claim):

• QB Kyler Murray — 1-yr, $1.3M cost to MIN (ESPN, 2026-03-12) — starter claim by reporting, not money
• WR Jauan Jennings — 1-yr/$8M, $6.13M gtd, up to $13M w/ incentives (NFL.com/ESPN/Spotrac, 2026-05-08) — direct Nailor replacement, WR3
• RB Demond Claiborne — R6 #198 (Wake Forest) — change-of-pace/return claim only
• FB Max Bredeson — R5 #159 (Michigan) — Ham's 21-personnel role (7.2% in 2025)
• OL Caleb Tiernan R3 #97, C Gavin Gerhardt R7 #235 — depth, no starter claim yet
• QB Carson Wentz re-signed 1-yr (vikings.com, March 2026)

Projected pecking order:

Slot answer for evals: Jauan Jennings plays the slot most, with Jefferson and Addison rotating through it situationally (vikings.com/atozsports, May–June 2026).

RB committee split (not contested at the top, roles distinct — vikingsterritory depth chart 2026-07-04 + 2025 usage):

• Early-down: Jones 1A / Mason 1B (2025: Mason 159 car in 16 gm, Jones 132 in 12 — a real ~55/45 committee when both healthy)
• Passing-down: Jones (41 tgt vs Mason's 16)
• Goal-line: Mason (6 rush TD 2025 vs Jones' 2) — with Murray now taxing this bucket (Murray + McCarthy-style QB keepers near the line; McCarthy had 4 rush TD in 2025)
• Depth: Claiborne (R6, COP/returns), Zavier Scott (re-signed minimum)

TE1/TE2: Hockenson TE1 (every-down); Josh Oliver TE2 — blocking/12-personnel role (21% 12 pers. in 2025) with standalone red-zone value (4 TD on 19 tgt in 2025); Gavin Bartholomew TE3.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 8.5 (DraftKings, Over −110 / Under −115 — CBS Sports, 2026-07-01; stable June 1 → July 1; BetMGM also 8.5) → script lean: neutral — the caller's tendency table governs.
• Projected plays/game: ~61 · Projected pass rate: ~59% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~32 · rush attempts/game: ~25 (incl. ~4–5 Murray runs)
• Inputs: 2025 = 58.0 plays/gm at 61.7% pass (nflverse — bad-offense floor); 2024 = 64.1 at 61.8% (functional-QB baseline); O'Connell career PROE +1.4% (roundtable.io, 2026); neutral 8.5 win total = no script adjustment; Murray's scramble/designed-run profile converts ~2 pts of dropbacks to QB runs. 61 × 0.59 ≈ 36 dropbacks − ~2.5 sacks − ~2 scrambles ≈ 32 att; 61 × 0.41 ≈ 25 rushes incl. QB.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Brian Flores (DC) — confirmed: retained for 2026, announced with the full staff (vikings.com, 2026-02-24; NBC Sports/PFT, Feb 2026 "staying put for at least one more year")
• Tenure with team: 4th season (DC since 2023) · New DC: no — 2025 scheme stats remain valid; continuity green flag on scheme, but see personnel turnover below
• Front/scheme family: odd/hybrid front, disguise-and-pressure identity — simulated pressures, post-snap rotation, heavy pre-snap movement (established Flores identity, 2023–25)

2025 results context: 19.59 PPG allowed, 22 takeaways, −0.086 EPA/play allowed (nflverse def_summary) — a top-5 unit.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• OUT — edge Jonathan Greenard, traded to PHI during the 2026 draft (with pick #244) for 2026 R3 #98 + a 2027 R3; PHI extended him 4-yr/$100M (vikings.com/NFL.com/CBS, April 2026). The single biggest fantasy-defense loss — expect a 2–4 pt pressure-rate haircut risk (dst.md §3) unless Dallas Turner's leap covers it. Edge room is now Andrew Van Ginkel + Dallas Turner (2024 R1, "guaranteed starting role" — vikingsterritory, 2026-05-30).
• OUT — interior DL gutted: DT Jonathan Allen released (post-June-1) and DT Javon Hargrave released → GB 2-yr/$23M (atozsports tracker, 2026-03-11). Interior DL moves register less for fantasy, but two starters at once plus rookie replacements is an install/run-defense drag (RSWR already 20th — ESPN, 2026-01-06).
• OUT — S Harrison Smith released post-June-1, likely retiring (atozsports 2026-03-11; Star Tribune). Safety room: Josh Metellus + Jay Ward/Theo Jackson/R3 #98 Jakobe Thomas competing (vikingsterritory, 2026-05-30).
• IN — draft-heavy rebuild: R1 #18 DL Caleb Banks (Florida — upside pick, two broken left feet in the past year), R2 #51 LB Jake Golday, R3 #82 NT Domonique Orange, R3 #98 S Jakobe Thomas, R5 #163 CB Charles Demmings (vikings.com draft page, April 2026); CB James Pierre signed 2-yr/$8.5M from PIT (atozsports, 2026-03-09); LB Eric Wilson re-signed 3-yr/$22.5M.
• CB1 Byron Murphy Jr. retained (contract restructured for cap space — minnesotasportsfan, 2026); CB2 Isaiah Rodgers; Murphy/Rodgers missed zero games in 2025 (vikingsterritory, June 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: does not shadow — Murphy is used as a versatile piece who "commonly plays in the slot" (vikingsterritory, June 2026); Flores assigns by leverage/disguise, not travel. No 2025 shadow reporting found.

Read: The NFL's most blitz-heavy defense (46% five-plus rush) playing zone behind it (81%) — an elite, takeaway-rich pressure engine that punishes bad O-lines and upgrades opposing zone-beater slots/option routes rather than man-beaters. The 2026 risk is personnel, not scheme: the edge #1 (Greenard), both veteran interior DTs, and the franchise safety all left at once, replaced by day-1/2 rookies — scheme continuity (Flores yr 4) keeps the floor high, but expect early-season pressure-rate regression risk and a softer run defense until the rookie DL settles.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: exactly one major change — new QB1 (Murray). Same play-caller 5th year, 4 of 5 OL spots return, no genuinely open depth-chart battle at the top (Murray −770; Brandel "the guy" at C per OTA reporting). The QB competition is nominally open but reporting treats a McCarthy win as a "massive upset" (ESPN, spring 2026). Defensive trust travels separately: dc_new: false, but the §8 personnel turnover (Greenard/Allen/Hargrave/Smith out) is a DST-eval caution even with Flores continuity.
• Watch items: (1) formal QB1 announcement in camp — and any McCarthy trade (fires the QB-contingency rewrite: Wentz backup = tier B−/C); (2) Darrisaw camp/preseason availability — an IR recurrence flips OL band and deep-game read; (3) Brandel vs Jurgens at C if early pressure spikes; (4) Jennings slot usage vs Felton in 11 personnel once padded practices start; (5) Dallas Turner pressure production replacing Greenard (DST tripwire); (6) win-total move ≥1.5 (currently 8.5); (7) Murray designed-run volume reporting — changes goal-line RB math.