Las Vegas Raiders

LV — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Context: the Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 (worst record in the NFL — CBS Sports, March 2026), fired OC Chip Kelly after 11 games at 2-9 (Greg Olson interim play-caller from Week 13 — ESPN, Nov 2025), then blew the whole thing up: Pete Carroll out after one season, Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak hired as HC (NFL.com/Yahoo coaching tracker, Jan–Feb 2026), Geno Smith traded to the Jets (March 2026), Kirk Cousins signed and Fernando Mendoza drafted No. 1 overall (April 2026). Every scheme-dependent 2025 role on this offense is void per methodology §9.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Klint Kubiak, HC — confirmed. Kubiak said at his introductory press conference he will call plays ("I've never called the game by myself... that's something we do as a coaching staff together"); OC Andrew Janocko is confirmed as a non-calling OC — "key to Raiders' coaching staff despite not calling plays" (Silver And Black Pride / Yahoo, Feb–June 2026). Janocko runs playbook design, game-plan coordination, and install; Kubiak-Janocko have worked together at MIN (2019–21), NO (2024), SEA (2025) (A to Z Sports/Yardbarker, Feb 2026).
• Tenure with team: 1st season (hired Jan–Feb 2026; coordinators announced 2026-02-15 — Las Vegas Sun) · Prior relationship with QB1: Cousins was Kubiak's starter at MIN 2019–21 (Kubiak QB coach 2019–20, OC/play-caller 2021 — NFL.com Cousins signing story, April 2026).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: Kubiak is a Shanahan/Gary-Kubiak-tree caller — run-tilted (negative PROE, bottom-10 neutral pass rate, 3rd in rush attempts at SEA 2025), slow pace, under-center heavy (bottom-6 shotgun at both prior stops), high motion and play-action, and only ~42% 11 personnel with real 12/21/22 usage. He does not spread it around: he funnels to one alpha (JSN's 35.8% target share in 2025 was historic) — on this roster the alpha claim belongs to Brock Bowers, and the multi-TE personnel lean keeps Michael Mayer on the field. RB target share was low at SEA but Kamara-heavy at NO — Jeanty's 73-target rookie season fits either way. Expect a first-year install drag on pace/motion early (methodology §9), muted by the fact that Kubiak imported his own staff (Janocko, OL coach Rick Dennison — raiders.com staff announcement, 2026-03-01).

QB situation

• QB1: Kirk Cousins (age 37) — signed April 2026, $20M fully guaranteed in 2026 (club option 2 yrs/$80M, max $172M/5 yrs; ATL pays $8.7M of his 2026 money — ESPN/NFL.com, April 2026). Coming out of OTAs/minicamp the plan is on track for Cousins to start Week 1 with No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza developing behind him (Cousins took all first-team reps at OTAs/minicamp; Mendoza with 2s/3s — Bleacher Report/Heavy/Yardbarker, June 2026). Benching risk: live by design — this is a succession, not a competition; ideal-scenario reporting has Mendoza sitting "most of his rookie season" (Yardbarker, June 2026), but a 5.5-win team's bridge QB rarely finishes the year. Treat a midseason handoff as the base case for eval ranges.
• Backup: Fernando Mendoza (R1, No. 1 overall, Indiana; 2025 Heisman winner — ESPN draft tracker, 2026-04-23) — tier B (elite capital, accuracy/decision-making profile, offense built for him; but a rookie = compression early). QB3 Aidan O'Connell (raiders.com position breakdown, June 2026).
• Contingency line: If Cousins misses time or is benched: Mendoza, tier B — expect the run lean to deepen slightly, more play-action/boot movement, a modest aDOT dip early with screens/checkdowns up; Bowers (option routes, YAC) and Jeanty hold best, the vertical X work (Nailor/Thornton) is hit hardest until Mendoza settles. No tier-C cliff on this roster.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Kolton Miller (flag: age 30, played only 4 games in 2025 — hairline fracture + high ankle sprain, IR from 2025-09-30; extended 3 yrs/$66M, $42.5M gtd — ESPN/NFL.com) — LG contested: Spencer Burford vs. R3 Trey Zuhn III (No. 91) vs. Caleb Rogers (Silver And Black Pride OL competition preview, June 2026) — Tyler Linderbaum (FA from BAL, record 3 yrs/$81M, $60M gtd — ESPN FA tracker, March 2026) — Jackson Powers-Johnson — DJ Glaze (contested: legitimate camp battle vs. 2nd-year Charles Grant — Silver And Black Pride, June 2026). Departed: LG/RG Dylan Parham (NYJ), swing T Stone Forsythe (CAR) (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026).
• Interior vs edge: the interior flips from liability to near-strength — Linderbaum is a top-of-market center and Powers-Johnson slots at RG — but LG is open and may be a rookie (expect early interior pressure spikes if Zuhn starts, methodology §4). Edges are adequate-if-healthy: Miller's ankle and the Glaze/Grant battle are the risks. Net read: a bad 2025 unit (64 sacks, 54% of Jeanty carries contacted behind LOS) with two real upgrades (Linderbaum + Miller's return); still cap efficiency expectations until the LG resolves.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone (Kubiak/Shanahan tree; OL coach Rick Dennison is a career zone-scheme architect — raiders.com staff, 2026-03-01) — RB fits: one-cut vision/burst backs. Jeanty (vision, contact balance) fits; R4 Mike Washington Jr. (6'2" 228, 4.33) is the size-speed complement (raiders.com position breakdown, June 2026).
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — under-center, PA-and-motion heavy, YAC-engine intermediate game, condensed sets. Implications: slot/YAC and TE profiles up, mid aDOT, WR3 snaps gated by ~50% multi-TE/multi-back personnel; the second TE (Mayer) is fantasy-adjacent; manufactured 2025 roles (Kelly/Olson designed touches) are void.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries): WR Jakobi Meyers (49 / 0 — traded at the 2025 deadline after 7 games), WR Tyler Lockett (34 / 0 — off roster, not in 2026 WR room per raiders.com, June 2026), RB Raheem Mostert (12 / 22 — not in 2026 RB room), RB Zamir White (6 / 12), TE Albert Okwuegbunam (6 / 0), WR Alex Bachman (3 / 0), QB Geno Smith (0 / 41 — traded to NYJ 2026-03-11), QB Kenny Pickett (0 / 5 — to CAR) (data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, rushing.csv; ESPN FA tracker March 2026). Vacated targets: ~110 of 494 (22%) · Vacated carries: ~80 of ~369 (local CSVs, pulled 2026-07-07)

Arrivals (name — claim): QB Fernando Mendoza — R1 No. 1 overall (ESPN draft tracker, 2026-04-23). QB Kirk Cousins — $20M gtd 2026 (ESPN, April 2026). WR Jalen Nailor — 3 yrs/$35M, $23M gtd from MIN (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026); mid-tier WR2 money, presumptive starter but not an alpha claim. C Tyler Linderbaum — 3 yrs/$81M, $60M gtd. RB Mike Washington Jr. — R4 No. 122 (traded up — raiders.com, April 2026). WR Malik Benson — R6 No. 195 (Oregon, 4.37 speed). RB/FB Connor Heyward — depth/FB-flex (raiders.com RB room breakdown, June 2026; contract UNVERIFIED). ~110 vacated targets against only mid-tier capital added = incumbents (Bowers, Tucker, Bech) absorb most of it.

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

RB committee split: Jeanty bellcow — early downs Jeanty (72.1% carry share in 2025 — rushing.csv), passing downs Jeanty primary with Heyward mixing, goal line Jeanty with Washington (228 lbs) sprinkled. Washington is the No. 2 / change-of-pace; beat reporting explicitly rejects a 50/50 or 60/40 split (Silver And Black Pride, May 2026). Not contested at the top.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 5.5 (Over −155 / Under +130) at BetMGM; FanDuel Over −125, as-of 2026-07-07 (BetMGM/CBS Sports win-total pages) → script lean: negative (≤7 band — more pass attempts than the caller's tendency says, garbage-time flavor, non-receiving RBs die; Jeanty's receiving role is the insulation).
• Projected plays/game: ~61 (league avg ~63; Kubiak pace 26th in 2025 → −3; negative-script hurry-up snags → +1; refs: SEA 2025 = 61.3, LV 2025 = 57.9 — pbp_summary.csv) · Projected pass rate: ~52–53% neutral, ~57% raw (Kubiak neutral pass rate 23rd–26th at SEA, PROE −2.0% at NO 2024; negative script at a 5.5 win total adds ~4 pts to raw).
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~31 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 61 plays × 57% = ~34.8 dropbacks, minus ~2.8 sacks/gm (64 allowed in 2025, improved line) and ~1 scramble; run plays 61 − 34.8 ≈ 26).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Rob Leonard, DC — confirmed, promoted from Raiders DL coach/run-game coordinator (NFL.com, Feb 2026; ESPN scheme preview, 2026-06-25). Kubiak (offensive HC) does not run the defense.
• Tenure with team: 4th year on staff (DL coach since 2023), 1st as DC — first-time coordinator → new-DC protocol: 2025 scheme stats below are void as forward-looking signal; no prior play-calling stops to pull, so his tree is the weak prior — Spagnuolo (NYG, 3 yrs: pressure-manufacturing, sim pressures), Flores (MIA 2019–21: aggressive man/Cover-0 blitz), Macdonald (BAL 2022: disguise, rotation-heavy) (ESPN, 2026-06-25). dc_new: true; expect year-1 install drag weeks 1–4.
• Front/scheme family: shifting to a 3-4 base / odd front from the 2025 4-3, emphasis on versatility, heavy rotation, and "aggressive, fast-paced play" accepting occasional busts (ESPN, 2026-06-25). All rates below are 2025 Patrick Graham numbers — reference only:

Also: 25.41 PPG allowed, 16 takeaways, +0.028 EPA/play allowed in 2025 (def_summary.csv). 2026 rates under Leonard: UNVERIFIED until games are played — prior-tree read is more blitz/sim-pressure and more man than Graham's 78% zone, low confidence.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures: Edge — no losses: Maxx Crosby returns (EDGE1; midseason trade chatter is a watch item — SI/depth-chart coverage, June 2026), Malcolm Koonce re-signed 1 yr/$11M (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026), R3 edge Keyron Crawford (No. 67) adds rotation. CB1 — continuity: Eric Stokes and Darien Porter outside, with slot CB Taron Johnson acquired from BUF (trade: 6th for Johnson + 7th — ESPN, March 2026) — a real nickel upgrade. Rookies CB Jermod McCoy (4.101), CB Hezekiah Masses (5.175), S Treydan Stukes (2.38). LB overhaul: Quay Walker (3/$40.5M, $28M gtd) + Nakobe Dean (3/$36M, $20M gtd) — barely registers for fantasy per methodology §8. Departure: DC Patrick Graham to PIT; CB Darnay Holmes to ATL (ESPN, Feb–March 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — no established shadow corner; new scheme, no 2026 charting yet.

Read: a first-time DC installing a new 3-4 with an elite edge anchor (Crosby) and an upgraded second level/nickel — the pressure floor is real (27.8% in 2025 was Crosby-driven and he returns) but everything scheme-shaped (blitz/man rates) is unverified guesswork until September, and the offense's negative game script caps DST value regardless. Weeks 1–4 install drag applies (dst.md §4).

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: two-plus major changes (new HC/play-caller AND new QB1 — with a live in-season QB succession on top, plus a 2-new-starter OL with an open LG battle). Kubiak is *not* a first-time caller (3 prior stops), which keeps this from being worse than it reads, and the skill core (Bowers/Jeanty/Tucker/Mayer) is fully intact — but evals should widen ranges, especially on pass-catchers tied to the Cousins→Mendoza handoff timing.
• Watch items: (1) the QB handoff — any Mendoza first-team reps in camp/preseason fires the QB tripwire; (2) LG battle (Burford/Zuhn/Rogers) and RT battle (Glaze/Grant); (3) slot alignment in camp — Bech vs. Nailor inside flips pecking-order slots 4/5; (4) Kolton Miller's ankle in camp; (5) Maxx Crosby trade chatter (fires the defensive-identity tripwire); (6) win total movement off 5.5 (≥1.5-win move = staleness trigger); (7) Bowers' knee holding through camp.