Green Bay Packers

GB — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Matt LaFleur (HC) — confirmed. LaFleur has called plays since taking over in 2019 and publicly said he is keeping play-calling for 2026 ("no plans to give up playcalling"; ESPN, and packersnews.com 2026-04-07 "start like it's Year 1"). OC Adam Stenavich does not call plays.
• Tenure with team: HC/play-caller since 2019 (8th season) · Prior relationship with QB1: drafted-and-developed — Love's only NFL play-caller.
• Staff churn around him: QB coach Sean Mannion left to be PHI OC; WR coach Ryan Mahaffey followed him; Luke Getsy promoted to QB coach + assistant coach/offense (ESPN coaching-staff story; packers.com 2026-03-19).

Last 3 play-calling stops (same team — LaFleur has called GB's plays since 2019; three most recent seasons shown):

Row sources: 2025 motion/PA/personnel/RB-tgt/WR1-TS computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + ftn_charting.csv + receiving.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07); PROE rank 25th, 27.5 sec/snap, 59.4 plays/gm, 35 dropbacks/gm (29th), dropback EPA 0.27 (2nd), rush EPA −0.07 (21st) from NBC Sports GB fantasy preview (fetched 2026-07-07). 2024: acmepackingcompany.com "Looking back on 2024" + draftsharks 2025 preview (48.8% pass rate, 47.8% neutral, −4.5% PROE, 30th; APC 5/2025 puts PROE at −8.4% on its model). 2023: "10th in PROE in 2023" per the same reporting.

Read: LaFleur is one of the league's most run-tilted callers relative to expectation (25th–30th PROE three straight years) despite an elite pass offense (0.27 dropback EPA, 2nd in 2025 vs −0.07 rush EPA, 21st) — he leaves pass volume on the table, and pace is bottom-third, so total volume is capped. Motion (44%) and PA (24.5%) are moderate, 12 personnel (29%) is high enough to gate WR3 snaps and feed the TEs. He spreads targets — 2025 WR1 target share was just 18.5%, and no LaFleur WR has commanded alpha volume — so the target tree is flat by design; offseason "strip it down" talk hints at more pass-lean, but beat analysis (NBC, 6/2026) calls a massively pass-heavy shift unlikely.

QB situation

• QB1: Jordan Love — 4-yr/$220M extension signed July 2024, locked through 2028 (Spotrac). Benching risk: none. 2025: 291/439, 3,381 yds, 23 TD / 6 INT, 21 sacks in 15 games (data/stats/2025/passing.csv).
• Backup: Desmond Ridder, with Kyle McCord as QB3 (theleap.football minicamp depth chart, 6/2026; Malik Willis departed in free agency — SI/packersnews 3/2026) — tier C (Ridder is a proven below-average starter; McCord unproven).
• Contingency line: If Love misses time: Ridder, tier C — expect pass rate down 4–6 pts, aDOT compresses toward screens/checkdowns, and Watson's vertical role is hit hardest; Reed/Kraft underneath work holds relatively better; every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier and positive-script run game becomes the offense.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Jordan Morgan (2024 R1, first year at LT — replaces Rasheed Walker), LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan (re-signed 3-yr/$33M, moving from RG to C — replaces Elgton Jenkins), RG Anthony Belton (2025 R2, first year as full-time starter), RT Zach Tom (INJURY FLAG: partially torn patellar tendon surgery after 2025, ~6-month recovery, expected Week 1 but may miss camp time — atozsports/press reports 6/2026). Depth: R5 C Jager Burton (Kentucky), Donovan Jennings (new deal), Darian Kinnard. Sources: packers.com "Youth movement" 2026-06-24; heavy.com; packersnews depth chart 2026-03-16.
• Interior vs edge: Whole interior is reshuffled — Rhyan is a first-year center and Belton a first-year full-time RG; interior pressure is the live risk, which threatens Love's efficiency and the deep game more than the edges. Tom is a top-tier RT when healthy; Morgan at LT is the edge question mark. Expect early-season pressure spikes per methodology §4 (position-changing/rookie interior starters). Departures: Elgton Jenkins released 3/9/2026 (signed CLE 2-yr/$24M), Rasheed Walker signed with CAR (packersnews, 247sports, 3/2026).

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Wide/outside zone base with gap/duo mixed in (LaFleur Shanahan-tree; unchanged) — RB fits: one-cut zone runners; Jacobs has won in it on volume despite a downhill style (929 yds, 13 TD in 2025).
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — zone run game married to PA and motion (44% motion, 24.5% PA in 2025). Implications: YAC and intermediate in-breakers are the engine (Kraft led ALL receivers at 11.3 YAC/rec pre-injury — NBC 6/2026); slot/YAC profiles (Reed) are schemed touches; mid aDOT overall with Watson as the vertical stressor; flat target distribution rather than a fed alpha.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, from receiving.csv/rushing.csv):

• Romeo Doubs, WR — 85 targets / 0 carries → signed NE, 4-yr/$68M (profootballnetwork 3/2026)
• Dontayvion Wicks, WR — 46 targets / 1 carry → traded to PHI (Yahoo/heavy 2026 offseason)
• Emanuel Wilson, RB — 17 targets / 125 carries → signed SEA (SI 53-man projection, 5/2026)
• Malik Willis, QB2 — 22 carries → departed FA (SI, 3/2026)

Vacated targets: 148 · Vacated carries: 148 (Doubs 85 + Wicks 46 + Wilson 17; Wilson 125 + Willis 22 + Wicks 1)

Arrivals: no meaningful pass-catching capital added — 2026 draft was defense-heavy (no offensive skill pick in the first four rounds; R5 C Burton was the only OL add). WR adds are depth-tier: Skyy Moore, Will Sheppard, J. Michael Sturdivant, Brenden Rice, Isaiah Neyor (packersnews OTA depth chart 5/27/2026). RB adds Pierre Strong Jr. / Damien Martinez are backup-tier. QB adds: Ridder, McCord. 148 vacated targets with no capital added ≥120 threshold → feeding-opportunity green flag for incumbents (Watson, Kraft, Reed, Golden).

Projected pecking order:

TE2 Luke Musgrave (minicamp injury flag, severity UNVERIFIED — theleap 6/2026); Josh Whyle preferred as the move/passing-downs TE while Kraft rehabs (acmepackingcompany TE preview 6/2026).

Slot projection: Jayden Reed is the primary slot — post-minicamp depth reporting lists Watson and Golden as the boundary starters with Reed in the slot, Skyy Moore behind him (packersnews OTA depth chart 5/27/2026; theleap minicamp depth 6/2026).

RB committee split: Jacobs is the every-down back — early-down, goal-line (13 rush TD in 2025), and plurality of RB targets. Behind him (contested): MarShawn Lloyd change-of-pace/passing downs (injury history, minimal career snaps), Chris Brooks short-yardage/blocking, Pierre Strong Jr. / Damien Martinez camp battle. Jacobs legal flag: arrested late May 2026 on five counts incl. felony strangulation; released without formal charges, Brown County DA still investigating; back at team practice; NFL discipline possible but none indicated (ESPN, NFL.com, 6/2026). If Jacobs misses time, this becomes an ugly Lloyd/Brooks/Martinez committee with no lead-back claim.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: FanDuel 9.5 (Over −115 / Under −105) as of 2026-07-07 search; DraftKings opened at 10.5 on 2026-02-19 (covers.com), FanDuel prices Under 10.5 at −175 → effective market ~9.5–10.5 → script lean: positive
• Projected plays/game: 61 (2025: 60.6 per pbp_summary.csv; pace 27.5 s/snap, bottom-third — league-avg 63 baseline minus slow-pace drag, small bump for a healthier skill group)
• Projected pass rate: ~57% of plays (pbp definition incl. dropback plays; 2025 was 56.8% with 25th-rank PROE; positive script + LaFleur's run tilt caps upside despite "more pass-heavy" offseason talk)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~30 · rush attempts/game: ~27.5. Inputs: 61 plays × 57% ≈ 34.8 dropbacks − ~4.5 sacks/scrambles/throwaways ≈ 30 attempts (2025 actual: 28.8 att/gm on 489 team attempts); 61 × 43% ≈ 26.2 designed runs + ~1.5 QB scrambles ≈ 27.5 (2025 actual: 28.9 rush att/gm).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Jonathan Gannon — hired as DC after Jeff Hafley left to become Miami's HC on 2026-01-19 (NFL.com; packersnews 1/19/2026; packers.com "5 things" 2/2/2026). Presumed defensive play-caller (standard DC role under an offense-side HC; no reporting suggests otherwise as of 2026-07-07).
• Tenure with team: Year 1 — NEW DC (dc_new: true; new-DC protocol applies, methodology §8: last season's GB scheme stats are VOID for projection)
• Front/scheme family: base 3-4 / odd front — an explicit shift from Hafley's 4-3 — with heavy disguise, multi-safety looks, and "play style over scheme" flexibility (ESPN 6/2026; packersnews 2/6/2026; acmepackingcompany scheme intro)

2025 GB rates under Hafley (personnel baseline only — scheme numbers VOID under new DC):

Gannon prior-stop priors (what to actually project): PHI DC 2021–22 — bottom-4 blitz rate (~18–22% of dropbacks in 2022), zone-heavy two-high shell, pressure from the front four (70 sacks in 2022) (arizonasports/crossingbroad retrospectives); ARI HC 2023–25 — Nick Rallis called that defense, so weight it lightly, but charting showed Cover-0/1/2 usage similar to Hafley's GB and league-low blown coverages (10 in 2025) (packersnews 2/6/2026; 247sports). Net prior: low blitz, zone-lean, disguise-heavy, front-four dependent.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first):
• OUT: Rashan Gary, EDGE — traded to DAL for a 2027 4th (stadiumrant/yardbarker FA tracker, 3/2026); Kingsley Enagbare, EDGE — signed NYJ 1-yr/$10M; Nate Hobbs, CB — released one year into 4-yr/$48M deal (SI 3/2026); Quay Walker, LB — signed LV 3-yr/$40.5M (off-ball, minor fantasy impact)
• IN: Benjamin St-Juste, CB — 2-yr/$10M (packersnews 3/10/2026); Javon Hargrave, DT — 2-yr/$23M (interior, minor); Zaire Franklin, LB — trade from IND (off-ball, minor); draft: R2 #52 CB Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), R3 #77 DT Chris McClellan, R4 #120 EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton (Penn State), R6 CB Domani Jackson (packers.com draft tracker, 4/2026)
• Micah Parsons, EDGE — INJURY: ACL torn 2025-12-14 (surgery 12/29), hard nine-month timeline puts return ~2026-09-29; will open on PUP, realistic return ~Week 4–5 (packersnews 6/3/2026; packers.com 6/3/2026)
• CB1: Keisean Nixon (de facto top corner, with Carrington Valentine and St-Juste — roundtable/SI 6/2026). Shadow-CB tendency: unknown under Gannon — no established shadow history for Nixon, and Gannon's deployment is unreported as of 2026-07-07.

Read: Expect a low-blitz, zone-lean, disguise-heavy defense that lives on front-four pressure — which is exactly the problem for September: Parsons (PUP until ~Week 4–5), Gary, and Enagbare are all out of the early-season edge room, leaving Lukas Van Ness, day-3 rookies, and 2025 picks to rush the passer. Weeks 1–4 GB DST is a fade (new-DC install drag + pressure hole); the unit's ceiling arrives when Parsons returns.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — per methodology §10: same play-caller (LaFleur, 8th yr) + same QB1 (Love) is the high-stability core, but the OL overhaul (2 of 5 return at the same position, new LT/C/RG, Tom injury flag) is one major change; the contested Reed/Golden target order and Jacobs' legal risk add open-battle noise. Defensive trust travels separately: dc_new: true caps DST-eval confidence.
• Watch items: (1) Brown County DA charging decision / NFL discipline on Jacobs — fires the RB section and every GB pass-catcher's script assumptions; (2) Kraft and Tom camp/PUP status — Week 1 availability assumed here; (3) Musgrave minicamp injury severity; (4) Reed vs Golden camp usage — flips pecking-order slots 3/4; (5) Parsons activation timing — defensive identity only; (6) win-total movement ≥1.5 (currently 9.5–10.5).